HoriZone Roundtable

Few changes after another weekend of sweeps

After a week out of the rankings, IUPUI returns to the top spot. Somebody is going to need to beat the Jaguars to justify dropping them from first. Elsewhere, things were pretty straightforward as once again every series ended in a sweep.

For a moment, it looked like Horizon League women’s basketball might have a week where all 12 teams played. Then Northern Kentucky revealed it wouldn’t be able to play due to COVID-19 protocols. Then Detroit Mercy opted to suspend its season after players alleged abuse by head coach AnnMarie Gilbert.

1. IUPUI Jaguars
   
   With IUPUI done with a second weekend of canceled games, all indications are that the Horizon League heavyweight showdown between the Jaguars and Milwaukee should go on as scheduled this weekend. As the defending champs who have obliterated every opponent they’ve played in the Horizon League, IUPUI jumps back into the rankings in first despite its pause.
   
2. Milwaukee Panthers
   
   At 10-0 in the Horizon League, Milwaukee didn’t do anything that explicitly deserved to get them kicked off of the top spot. But since the Panthers only had it last week on a technicality, IUPUI bumps them from the top. On Friday, Cleveland State actually gave the Panthers a competitive game While Milwaukee led by 13 after three quarters, they allowed CSU to make a late push and wound up winning 56-52. Saturday was more of what we’ve been used to from the Panthers so far, with the team taking an 18 point lead into halftime and coasting to a 65-44 win.
   
   Megan Walstad became the second player to win Horizon League Player of the Week twice after a dominant weekend. Walstad averaged 20.5 points and 12 rebounds in the pair of victories over Cleveland State. While her counting stats probably aren’t strong enough to contend with the two-time defending Player of the Year Williams for the league’s top individual honor right now, she seems like a no-brainer for a First Team All-League spot if the Panthers remain near the top of the league.
   
3. Green Bay Phoenix
   
   With a pair of easy wins over Purdue Fort Wayne, Green Bay has done enough to hold serve among the schools that were in last week’s rankings (and remain where it was the last time IUPUI and NKU were ranked.) On Friday, the Phoenix took the lead with a little under four minutes to play in the first half and never looked back in a 62-46 victory. The Phoenix upped the ante from there on Saturday, leading for all 40 minutes in a 70-59 win.
   
   Lyndsey Robson had a strong weekend for the Phoenix, averaging 14 points and five rebounds in the two wins. She has now hit double-figures in three consecutive games after reaching that mark just twice all season before two Saturdays ago. Robson’s 18 points on Friday led all scorers and tied a career high, and she was one of just three Green Bay players to score more than four points.
   
4. Wright State Raiders
   
   Whereas the Horizon League is dealing with an excessive amount of parity on the men’s basketball side, it has very little in women’s basketball this year. That’s how a team that’s 9-1 in league play wins up fifth in the power rankings of a 12-team league. This weekend, the Raiders went 2-0 with a pair of wins over Horizon League newcomer Robert Morris. WSU never trailed after the midway point of the first quarter on its way to a pair of solid wins. The Raiders won 58-48 on Friday and 58-51 on Saturday.
   
   Tyler Frierson averaged a double-double with 10.5 points and 10.5 rebounds. In a weekend where scoring was at a premium her 76.9 percent shooting was vital for the Raiders, as were her eight offensive rebounds in the two games.
   
5. Oakland Golden Grizzlies
   
   There’s a pretty clear division between Oakland and the teams above it in the rankings right now. The first five teams have a combined 35-3 record in Horizon League play, with two of those losses coming to other Top Five teams. At 6-4, Oakland has more league losses than the top five by itself. The Golden Grizzlies didn’t get much of a chance to earn upward mobility this week with a pair of matchups against in-state rival Detroit Mercy. The Titans entered the weekend 1-7 in league play and left it 1-9. As was the case with Wright State, Oakland only trailed for a few first quarter minutes in the two 40 minute games.
   
   Senior Autumn Kissman put forward two of the three best scoring performances of her college career over the weekend, with 17 points on Friday and 18 on Saturday. She finished this career weekend with a mind-boggling effective field goal percentage of 85.
   
6. Youngstown State Penguins
   
   Despite missing four games in Horizon League play so far, Youngstown State is one of the few teams in the league that has played a schedule that gave a pretty good indication of where the team stood so far. The Penguins were swept by Wright State, split with Oakland and easily swept UIC this weekend. The gap between Oakland and YSU currently seems pretty minuscule, . On Friday, the Penguins led for all but 21 seconds in the second half in a 77-66 victory.
   
   Just three weekends into her college career, Nneka Obiazor has burst onto the scene in the Horizon League. While a two-point performance on Friday caused her scoring to plummet to 0.2 points per game behind former First Team All-League selections Chelsea Olson and Mary Dunn, she’s currently averaging 0.2 points per game less than former First Team All-League selections Chelsea Olson and Mary Dunn six games into her career while leading the team in rebounding by over two rebounds per game.
   
7. Cleveland State Vikings
   
   Cleveland State remains one of the toughest teams in the league to figure out thanks to its schedule, and it’ll likely remain that way through this weekend’s games against Green Bay. The Vikings were swept by Milwaukee, but the Panthers are currently 10-0 in Horizon League play and Friday’s close loss was actually a pretty intriguing result for a team that’s 2-6 in league play.
   
   Unsurprisingly, much of the reason for CSU’s strong performance against the Panthers on Friday was an outstanding performance from All-League guard Mariah White. White shot 11-for-19 from the field on her way to scoring 29 of Cleveland State’s 52 points. Her 3-for-16 performance on Saturday likely contributed to the blowout loss for a team that currently seems way too dependent on the league’s leading scorer to carry it to victories.
   
8. Robert Morris Colonials
   
   If things play out the way I think they will, ranking RMU above a pair of schools that have actually won games this season is going to be difficult to justify until RMU actually gets to play one of those schools for its only league wins of the season. But I stand by the fact that the lack of a non-conference slate and RMU’s ridiculous league slate so far are the main reasons the team is still winless.
   
   Esther Castedo led the Colonials in scoring in both games against Wright State, though with just eight points in Saturday’s loss it’s clear the team is still in search of a go-to scorer. Robert Morris has failed to have a player hit double-figures in four if its eight games this season. It does seem Castedo is the most likely current player to step into the go-to scoring role; she’s led the team in scoring in four games.
   
9. UIC Flames
   
   UIC returned to action after a COVID-19 related pause and lost a pair of games to Youngstown State. While the Penguins have also been limited in terms of games and it’s hard to tell how much this matters, both games were far more competitive than most previous efforts by the bottom teams in the league.
   
   Kristian Young put forth a strong case for Freshman of the Week, but was likely punished because the Flames lost both games. Young averaged 17 points, six rebounds and eight assists for UIC. She put in a career-high 25 points on Saturday in the seven-point loss.
   
   
10. Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
    
    Purdue Fort Wayne – whose coach is facing her own allegations of abuse – remained winless after being swept by Green Bay. Despite trailing for virtually the entire game in both matchups, the overall scoring margin wasn’t bad considering how the Mastodons have performed lately. Saturday’s 11-point loss was the team’s closest of league play. Friday’s 16-point loss was its third closest of league play behind Saturday and a 15-point loss to Cleveland State on January 2.
    
    Sierra Bell became the first player not named Riley Ott to score over 20 points for Purdue Fort Wayne this season, with 21 points on Saturday. It probably shouldn’t be a shock that having a player do that in a low-scoring game resulted in what is arguably the best performance the Mastodons have put forth this season.

Fans have long hypothesized that if their screams as an opponent stepped to the line for a crucial free throw had been a fewwww decibels higher, the shot surely would have rimmed out. Or if they had jeered a visiting star with some choice words before an inbound, they might get in his head juuuust enough to force a critical turnover on the ensuing possession.

Perhaps an oversized cardboard cutout of Betty White or some random figure with only moderate relevancy to the mid-major hoops Zeitgeist would bring the opponent enough utter confusion to brick that three ball at the buzzer.

Regardless folks, it’s been a tough year for the fan. Dialing up ESPN+ on the ol’ laptop doesn’t quite mimic the in-person experience to be found at the great atmospheres of Horizon League basketball.

From the right-on-top-of-ya O’renagoers, to the big-bowled crowds of BB&T Arena and the Nutter Center, to the SHRILL chants of Indianapolis’ finest elementary school students who’ve achieved good enough grades to earn themselves a field trip to Indiana Farmer’s Coliseum, fans across the Horizon League miss their teams.

But this strange, fanless season allows us to ask… are Horizon League teams missing their fans?

Before we dive into this week’s query, I’d like to introduce this column and myself. You may know me from my Twitter feed (@HorizonBoy_HB) where I pick each and every #HLMBB conference game against the spread. However, this column has a different agenda. The 2020-21 Horizon League schedule presents a Petri dish for experimenting my half-baked theories into predictive analytics.

Back to back scheduling, empty seats, and various other controls could potentially extract correlations into what makes HLMBB teams win basketball games, and by how much. Each week will examine a different element of this bizarre 2020-21 season by comparing it with past seasons and eyeing oddsmakers’ approaches to setting the spreads. Hopefully, in the process, you’ll find some unique factoids and insights into your favorite Horizon squads.

Now to lead us off–

Question: Are Horizon League teams performing worse at home without their faithful fans in the stands?

Answer: No. In fact, Horizon League home teams are performing even better without fans in the stands.

Across Horizon League conference play in the 2019-20 season, home teams were favored by an average of 3.29 points– a Darius Quisenberry three and some change. Home teams were favored in 71.1% of contests, but to the dismay of hometown hopefuls, won only 54.4% of games (a 49-41 record).

Further, home teams only outscored their opponents by 1.52 points– a fine day for Mike DePersia. Now take out Wright State, the only Horizon League team to post an undefeated 9-0 slate last year, and suddenly home teams were sub .500. Unsurprisingly then, home teams were only 36-52-2 against the spread, a 40.9% cover rate. Yikes.

So how has Vegas adjusted to the removal of fans? Oddly enough, oddsmakers haven’t been honoring Horizon League crowds much at all. In fact, even less than last year! So far, home teams have been favored in conference games by an average of only 3.03 points, a slight dip from 2019-20. In other words, home court advantage has been predicted to be less of a factor this year than last year. So is Vegas onto something, or are fans proving their value with their absence?

So far, home teams are winning by 3.57 points per game, with some thanks to a few MASSIVE wins by Wright State. Still, the overall win percentage is higher too, at 59.1%. Only Detroit Mercy (2-4) and IUPUI (0-2) have posted losing records at home to date.

Last season, home teams underperformed their Vegas expectancy by 1.17 points. This season, home teams are outperforming their Vegas expectancy by a half point (or as I say, a Loudon Love free throw (sorry Loudon I mean no disrespect)) and covering 8% more often.

Halfway through play, Horizon League home teams are winning more often, by a larger margin, and covering more spreads than they were the year before. This might be a tough pill to swallow for the “AHHHHH!” free throw yellers, the PG-13 jeerers, and the Betty White cutout-holders, but at least teams are protecting the nest?

Due to the small and varying sample sizes, it’s obviously too early to judge conclusively on a team-by-team basis. We’ll circle back at the end of the season, but to tide us all over, here’s some hot and premature observations:

• Wright State faithful might feel validated that Nagy’s bunch misses their presence. They’ve dropped two home games already following last year’s clean slate.
• Fans of Cleveland State might want to stay behind the Wolstein Center curtains, as the Vikings are covering home spreads by 7.1 points per game.
• Perhaps it has to do more with the Yaklich spark, but the Flames are winning home conference games by an average 9.25 points per game, and losing by an average 20 points on the road.
• It’s a down year for the Norse, but they seem to be missing Norse Nation. According to Oddsshark.com, NKU hasn’t been a home underdog in a conference game since January 20, 2017 vs. Oakland (NKU was +3 and lost by 79-70), but they have already dropped three home games.
• I think Greg Kampe should have worn his Christmas sweater even if there were no fans in the stands.

Thanks for reading, fellow Horizon League fanatics. Your teams miss your presence very much, and I can’t wait for normal attendance to return. Remember that as Horizon Boy, I am a fan of none, but a fan of all!

This week’s Trivia Question: Getting 16.5 points, which team was the biggest underdog of the 2019-20 Horizon League conference play, and who was their opponent?

DM @HorizonBoy_HB on Twitter with the correct answer for a shoutout in next week’s column!

Note: The only purpose of this column is to provide information. This information is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. As such, Horizon Boy and the HoriZone Roundtable will not be held responsible for any outcomes that result from the reliance upon this site’s information.

After a mind-blowing finish on national TV, Cleveland State guaranteed it would go into the midpoint of the Horizon League as the undisputed first place team. While that doesn’t necessarily translate to a first place spot in the power rankings, it allows for a strong argument. Elsewhere in the league, UIC had a bounce back week, and practically everything else descended further into chaos.

For the first time in recent memory, every school in the league has done what it needed to do to remain ranked.

1. Cleveland State Vikings
   
   I’ll be honest, I’m writing this paragraph on Friday after CSU snuck past Wright State on a Spider Johnson transition alley-oop with less than two seconds to play. If this weekend is anything like Wright State’s last two, it’s entirely possible they’ll beat the Vikings by 50 on Saturday. It doesn’t matter and I’m not editing this. CSU would still have shown the ability to beat the other top teams in the league while also avoiding ugly losses to sub-.500 teams. They’re in first.
   
   Torrey Patton continued to be the key behind Cleveland State’s success over the weekend, and on Friday that continued to be a great thing. Patton scored 17 points and grabbed eight rebounds in the win. Saturday marked the first time he was held to single-digit scoring in Horizon League play, and it was CSU’s first league loss of the season. Patton shot just 1-for-6 from the field and scored two points. He did grab 12 rebounds, but his struggles from the field reflected Cleveland State’s as a whole.
   
2. Wright State Raiders
   
   There’s an understandable argument to be made for the Raiders in first place after they’ve avenged each league loss in dominant fashion, including a 36-point win over first place Cleveland State on Saturday. The league’s top two teams put on a show for ESPNU viewers on Friday with an awesome back-and-forth contest that ended with Wright State appearing to force overtime before CSU’s D’Moi Hodge went the length of the court in 4.8 seconds before hoisting the game-winning alley-oop to Spider Johnson. Like the last two weeks, Wright State used the other game of the weekend to assert that it’s still a force in the league even if the team is going into the midway point of the year two games out of first place.
   
   While Tanner Holden having a slightly off shooting night wasn’t a factor this week in the loss on Friday, he scored just 11 points on 2-for-3 shooting. He racked up free throws to make up the difference, but it was the Raiders’ leading scorer’s lowest scoring night of Horizon League play. His 23 points on 6-for-8 shooting on Saturday tell a pretty clear story of how that game got out of hand
   
3. Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
   
   Following Cleveland State’s loss, Purdue Fort Wayne took over as the Horizon League team riding the longest win streak, with four victories in a row. The Mastodons lead the NCAA in 3-point shooting, no doubt in part thanks to Saturday’s 70.6 percent shooting night from long range. That hot shooting allowed Purdue Fort Wayne to jump out to a 17-point lead, that it held onto for a 81-74 victory. The Mastodons didn’t use such a shooting performance on Friday, but effectively attacked the glass to win the rebounding battle 44-29 en route to an 81-72 win.
   
   Jarred Godfrey had another dominant weekend for the Mastodons. He averaged 20.5 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists in the sweep; leading the team in all three categories in both games. If not for a high turnover count and Jalen Moore of Oakland playing out of his mind, Godfrey likely would’ve collected a second straight Horizon League Player of the Week award. Godfrey narrowly leads Moore in scoring during league play, with Godfrey at 20.5 points per game and Moore at 20.1.
   
4. UIC Flames
   
   With Braelen Bridges returning to the rotation, UIC got back on track with a pair of wins over Robert Morris. On Friday, the Flames used a 10-2 run to go into halftime up 37-28 and never looked back in a 67-53 win. It looked like more a similar situation on Saturday when the Flames used an early second half run to take a multiple-possession lead, but an 8-0 RMU rally changed the complexion of the game and forced overtime. Four quick UIC points forced the Colonials to play catchup the whole overtime period, and the Flames came away with a 66-62 win.
   
   Teyvion Kirk struggled with foul trouble and his shot wasn’t falling on Friday, but he still contributed in other ways by leading the team in rebounds and assists in both games. He averaged 13.5 points, 9 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game in the sweep.
   
5. Oakland Golden Grizzlies
   
   Oakland bounced back nicely from last week’s losses to Green Bay by sweeping Youngstown State, the team picked second in the Horizon League preseason poll. Both games were tight nearly halfway through the second half, but they took different paths from there. On Friday, the Goldent Grizzlies used a 15-0 run to put the Penguins away. Saturday was arguably a more important result for OU. The Golden Grizzlies toughed it out to win a close contest similar to the two they gave away late a week ago. So far, Oakland has embodied the league’s inconsistency better than anyone. Since the end of its insanely challenging non-conference schedule, Oakland has neither won nor lost more than two games in a row.
   
   Jalen Moore remained one of the most prolific offensive threats in the league on his way to winning Horizon League Player of the Week. Moore averaged 24.5 points and 13 assists per game. Moore posted his second 30-point outing of the season on Saturday.
   
6. Robert Morris Colonials
   
   On the other side of UIC’s bounce back from a pair of shorthanded losses to Purdue Fort Wayne last week, Robert Morris’ offense seriously struggled in its first game since New Year’s Day. Outside of A.J. Bramah scoring double figures in both games, a 10-point night from Kahlil Spear on Saturday was the only double-digit performance the rest of RMU’s roster could put together.
   
   Bramah averaged 22 points, but shot just 35.4 percent from the field. The two games were the first two of Bramah’s season where he was held under 40 percent from the field. He somewhat mitigated those shooting woes by averaging 15 rebounds per game, but without a second scorer the Colonials fell. Despite his shooting struggles, Bramah should still be positioned just as well for postseason awards thanks to these performances.
   
7. Milwaukee Panthers
   
   While 3-point defense played a big part in Milwaukee’s loss to Purdue Fort Wayne on Saturday, 3-point offense was likely just as important. The Panthers shot 55 3-pointers and made just 27.2 percent of them. With Purdue Fort Wayne hitting 5 more 3-pointers. on16 less attempts, the Panthers may want to reconsider how much of a part of the offense long-range shots are right now.
   
   Tafari Simms had another pair of quality offensive performances for Milwaukee over the weekend. He averaged 17 points and six rebounds despite once again struggling with foul trouble in one of the games. Simms is now the team’s fourth leading scorer after being the fourth forward in a four forward rotation to start the year. If he can keep out of foul trouble, he could be a key piece for Milwaukee in the second half of the season.
   
8. Northern Kentucky Norse
   
   Last week, I got together with Norse Report founder (and HoriZone Roundtable writer) Kyle Craven to discuss what I felt IUPUI could do to beat NKU. My argument was that if Marcus Burk and Jalen Minnett went off, they could beat anybody in the league. On paper, the school that slowed Jared Godfrey would have an answer for at least one of them. In practice, they didn’t. NKU allowed Burk and Minnett to combine for over 40 points in both games, with few others contributing much in the way of scoring. The Norse lost 74-69 on Friday and 65-63 on Saturday.
   
   While he was held to just nine points on Saturday, Marques Warrick got the weekend off to an strong start on Friday with an efficient 20-point night. Warrick finished the night with a 76.92 effective field goal percentage. Despite Saturday’s results, he’s still well on his way to being the Horizon League Freshman of the Year.
   
9. IUPUI Jaguars
   
   It’s not often that a team completes a sweep and still winds up a spot behind its weekend opponent, but perceptions on IUPUI and NKU were far enough apart that it’s hard to justify jumping the Jaguars above the Norse. Especially since the key for IUPUI to pull off wins last year is exactly how they won this weekend.
   
   Marcus Burk scorched the nets in both games against NKU. He averaged 25 points with a 65.28 effective field goal percentage in the two games. While he’s had nice performances before this weekend, these are easily Burk’s two best games this year so far. The Jaguars are going to need a few more of these performances while their promising new backcourt players get used to playing big minutes in Division I.
   
10. Youngstown State Penguins
    
    Youngstown State entered the season projected for a second place finish by HoriZone Roundtable, the Horizon League itself, and seemingly just about everybody else. Sitting at 3-7 in league play, all hopes of YSU finishing that high in the standings seem dead already. While two more league games make it a weird comparison by the end of the season, the Penguins lost eight games all last year and finished tied for fourth.
    
    Myles Hunter was one bright spot for YSU this weekend. He won Horizon League Freshman of the week after averaging 18 points with an effective field goal percentage of 66.7. Hunter seems to be a player who benefitted greatly from the game against Carlow University. It was Hunter’s first career double-digit scoring night, and he’s accomplished that feat three times since. After playing just 34 minutes in his first four games, Hunter was asked to play 38 minutes on Friday and 39 on Saturday. On his current trajectory, don’t be surprised if he’s a late-bloomer who turns into an All-Freshman Team pick.
    
11. Detroit Mercy Titans
    
    Alright, so technically if you frame Detroit Mercy as the one Horizon League team that hasn’t lost in 2021, this ranking is pretty unfair. And they did go 2-0 this week. But among the teams that pulled off sweeps this weekend, Detroit Mercy’s opponent appears the weakest and the Titans have nothing else to help sway things in their favor. On Friday the Titans took a lead early in the first half and never looked back, cruising to an 86-61 win. Saturday’s game was much tighter, with the Titans taking the lead for good in the back-and-forth affair with 4:20 to play.
    
    Antoine Davis finally put forth a couple dominant performances. If not for Jalen Moore’s stat-stuffing weekend, Davis likely would’ve been a strong candidate for League Player of the Week. Davis averaged 28 points and 5.5 assists in the two wins.
    
12. Green Bay Phoenix
    
    Green Bay rounds things out during a week where the last four were as difficult as I can remember, and not all that far behind the “middle” of the league. The Phoenix just swept a team I have ranked fifth a week ago! At the midway point of the season, it seems clear the league’s floor is higher than it was a year ago and it shouldn’t be a shock to see Green Bay pull off some wins that it shouldn’t on paper going forward.
    
    Emmanuel Ansong – who followed Will Ryan to Green Bay from Wheeling – appears to be emerging as a fourth scoring option for the Phoenix. While Ansong gave up some of his role as a rebounder this weekend, he averaged 12.5 points per game and tallied a career high 16 points on Saturday.