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Horizon League Power Rankings – Week 2

John Parker
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Horizon League Power Rankings – Week 2

With another rough week in the books, there were significant changes in the Power Rankings. First, several teams have found their way back into the rankings after resuming basketball activities following COVID-19 restrictions. Second, a week of surprising performances – both good and bad – caused teams to move dramatically.

Purdue Fort Wayne will remain out of the rankings for one more week due to positive COVID-19 tests.

  1. Wright State Raiders (1-1, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    If the overwhelming preseason league favorite had only had its loss to Marshall this week, this ranking would be hard to justify. The Thundering Herd are nearly one hundred spots higher than any of WSU’s Horizon League foes on KenPom. Still, a loss where the Raiders seemed to run out of gas and suffered from a lack of a floor general showed the concerns of the preseason might be bigger issues than everyone thought when the Raiders were picked as the overwhelming favorite to win the Horizon League.

    Fortunately, Wright State had a second game and made the most of it. The Raiders cruised against a Miami (OH) team that’s projected to be about as good as the rest of the Horizon League. While none of the backcourt players emerged as a true point guard, the ball was distributed much better and wing Tim Finke led the team with six assists.
  2. Detroit Mercy Titans (0-2, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    Thanks to a couple slip-ups from teams that got their seasons off to winning starts, the Titans skyrocket up the rankings from the HoriZone Preseason Poll projection despite an 0-2 start thanks to a pair of impressive outings against Power Conference foes.

    The Titans lost to eighth ranked Michigan State 83-76 on Friday, then lost to Notre Dame 78-70 on Sunday night. While the Titans’ lack of size and the fact that standout scorer Antoine Davis is on the roster might lead anyone who didn’t watch the games to believe Davis and a flurry of 3-pointers were key to the victory, Davis struggled shooting the ball and the Titans were outshot from both inside and outside of the 3-point line in both games. The success despite obvious disadvantages and a lack of hero-ball from Davis suggests that the Titans might finally have a team around its point guard that can lead it to a strong season.
  3. Northern Kentucky Norse (2-1, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    Northern Kentucky jumps back into the Power Rankings after it was revealed that the positive COVID-19 test that caused it to shut down basketball operations was a false positive. While a 1-1 week where the lone win was over Tennessee Tech doesn’t seem like something worthy of letting NKU jump UIC, this week gave us a mutual opponent that make the move possible.
  4. UIC Flames (3-1, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    UIC looked solid through its first three games of the season before faltering late against Ball State. The loss to a team that Northern Kentucky already beat – albeit barely – is reason enough to jump the Norse over UIC given how little information we have at this time.

    While it has nothing to do with the Flames, UIC’s two-point victory over Central Michigan also looks significantly worse after the Chippewas lost by 19 to Division II Flagler College.
  5. Youngstown State Penguins (0-0, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    Youngstown State makes its first appearance in the Power Rankings as the team is expected to make its season debut this week. With no results, the Penguins will start off at the head of the group of teams that hasn’t been able to play its way up the power rankings to this point.
  6. Robert Morris Colonials (1-0, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    RMU’s season finally began with a 75-57 victory over Point Park University. While it’s nice to know another team has resumed activities, a victory over an NAIA school doesn’t move the needle either direction.
  7. Oakland Golden Grizzlies (0-6, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    Oakland is something of an enigma in these power rankings. While it’s not shocking at all that the Golden Grizzlies are 0-6 at this point in the year, the way they got there makes it difficult to figure out where to place the team right now.

    An overtime loss to Michigan and causing some problems for Oklahoma State would suggest a decent ranking is in order. Getting run out of the gym against Xavier, Purdue, and especially Toledo would suggest a much lower ranking. For now, the Golden Grizzlies will be in seventh – the top of the bottom half.
  8. Green Bay Phoenix (0-3, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    There weren’t many conclusions that could be made when Green Bay was dramatically overmatched by Big 10 teams Minnesota and Wisconsin. The team’s game against Eastern Illinois was much more evenly matched and as a result, valuable conclusions can be drawn.

    Entering the season, expectations are for the Panthers to be about on par with the second tier of teams in the Horizon League. That gives a small silver lining to Saturday’s gut-wrenching 93-91 double overtime loss to EIU. Green Bay could be a threat to exceed preseason expectations, particularly once it figures out its frontcourt rotation.
  9. Cleveland State Vikings (0-2, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    Cleveland State’s stint at the top of the Horizon League Power Rankings was bound to be a short one, but the Vikings squashed all doubts that they don’t belong at the top spot by allowing Ohio to score a Division I vs. Division I record 40 consecutive points in a 101-46 defeat. It looked for awhile like Ohio might triple CSU’s point total.

    It capped off a strange first week of the season for Cleveland State. With so few games played this season, playing without All-League forward Al Eichelberger and putting up a competitive effort against Toledo – which ran Oakland out of the gym 80-53 less than two weeks ago – seemed like it was going to keep the Vikings near the top of this week’s rankings.
  10. Milwaukee Panthers (0-0, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    A recurring theme we’ve seen this season is for teams that have long shutdowns due to COVID-19 to come out flat when it’s finally time to take the court. Don’t be surprised if Milwaukee falls victim to that this week against Kansas State and Western Michigan. This is especially true because the games will be on back-to-back days.
  11. IUPUI Jaguars (0-0, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    Like Milwaukee, IUPUI is still waiting to make its season debut. The Jaguars finished well behind the pack last year, so it’s going to take one team making a few more efforts like CSU’s against Ohio – or an impressive victory of their own – to get the Jaguars out of last.

Whac-A-Mole Scheduling

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With the Horizon League non-conference schedule still sorting itself out, Bob and Matt recap what did and did not happen this last week. Included is the debuts of Cleveland State and Wright State, the early-season success of UIC and Northern Kentucky, Detroit Mercy’s strong showing against Michigan State, and the seemingly never-ending power-school buzzsaw Oakland is going through.

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Raiders bounce back, thrash Miami (OH)

Nick Lorensen
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Raiders bounce back, thrash Miami (OH)

Wright State looked to bounce back after a loss earlier this week, taking on their local rival, Miami (OH) on Saturday.

This was the 37th meeting all-time between the two, as the Raiders were riding a two-game win streak against the Redhawks. Miami had led the series, 20-15, though.

The Raiders came out red hot, as Trey Calvin hit an early three. He led the way on the day, once again, scoring 16 for WSU.

Wright State would then stretch the lead out to 13 in the first half, but a 5-0 Redhawk run to end the half, cut the lead down to six. Eerily similar to the Marshall game on Thursday.

“It was quickly mentioned right before we came back out that we were in the same exact spot the last game, and we kinda folded up. Our kids knew that, they certainly didn’t want it to be a pattern,” coach Scott Nagy said postgame.

The Raiders wouldn’t allow that to happen again. They went on a huge, 16-4 run, ultimately winning the game by 24.

Tim Finke really led the way with his first collegiate double-double. He had 13 points and a team-high 11 rebounds on the day.

“I think I have a motor that I’m just gonna keep going. Outwork my opponents.” said Finke.

Wright State would hold the Redhawks to a 22.9% shooting percentage in the second half. They shot only 27.3% on the game.

Calvin and Finke were two of four WSU players who finished in double digits. Sophomore Grant Basile chipping in 14 points and six rebounds, while Loudon Love added 11 points to go along with seven boards.

The Raiders will take a little break before heading to Bowling Green on Sunday.

Horizon League Breakout Candidate: C.J. Wilbourn

John Parker
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Horizon League Breakout Candidate: C.J. Wilbourn

The forward looks to build on a strong finish to 2020

As a freshman at Milwaukee, 6-foot-7 forward C.J. Wilbourn made the Horizon League All-Freshman Team. Despite this, he’s a fairly under-the-radar player because the All-Freshman team lagged dramatically behind recent seasons where he and Blake Lampman would’ve struggled to earn selections. Nonetheless, Wilbourn’s freshman season is one that makes him intriguing candidate for a much better season as a sophomore. While he didn’t hit the metrics that make Grant Basile a more promising contender to go from mundane stats to stardom, he had a strong finish to last season that has to leave Panther fans encouraged with what he could do this year.

On the year, Wilbourn averaged 4.4 points and 2.9 rebounds per game with an effective field goal percentage of 50.5. But considering he was averaging just 3.3 points per game with a 39.2 effective field goal percentage through 21 games, it seems he clearly acclimated to Division I basketball toward the end of the season. In those final ten games, Wilbourn averaged 6.5 points per game and his effective field goal percentage skyrocketed to 67.4.

What’s even better news for Panther fans is that Wilbourn’s increase in efficiency occurred alongside an increase in attempts. It would seem to show that the 6-foot-7 forward became more comfortable with playing at the Division I level as the season went on in a way that impacted both his shot selection and shot making. If he can continue to build that comfort while realizing that an effective field goal percentage of 67.4 percent can easily dip while still making it worthwhile for a player to continue shooting more, Wilbourn could go from a player who seemed terrified to shoot at the start of his career to one who can be relied on as a consistent post threat in two seasons or less.

Milwaukee’s main concern in 2021 has to be replacing a pair of players who were anything but afraid to shoot in graduated seniors Darius Roy and DeAndre Abram. If Wilbourn can turn into a player who can reliably score double-digits, he could chip away at a decent portion of that lost scoring and leave a smaller chunk to be replaced by Milwaukee’s large crop of newcomers. If he can come into his sophomore season maintaining the efficiency that he finished his freshman year with, another jump in shot attempts makes that a completely attainable goal. The bizarre nature of the 2020-21 season might help him with that. While a December visit to Kansas State appears to remain on the schedule, he’ll spend virtually the entire season playing against Horizon League opponents he grew accustomed to in 2020.

Before we finish, I’d like to qualify that I don’t see Wilbourn breaking out into an All-League performer like I do with many of the previous entries in this series. I mentioned in Trevon Faulkner’s breakout player article that I would’ve considered it a win if I called him a breakout candidate in 2019 and he improved in the ways he did last year. Consider this more akin to that: a promising freshman with the potential for back-to-back breakout seasons that end up with him as one of the stronger players in the league as an upperclassmen.

Miss anything from Preview Week(s)? Check it all out below:

HoriZone Roundtable Predictions
HoriZone Roundtable Preseason Poll • Preseason All-League Teams
If we had an All-Newcomer Team… • All-Freshman Team Picks

Team Previews
Wright State • Youngstown State • Robert Morris • Cleveland State
UIC • Oakland • Northern Kentucky • Detroit Mercy
Green Bay • Purdue Fort Wayne • Milwaukee • IUPUI

Official Horizon League Predictions
Men’s Basketball Preseason Poll • Men’s Basketball All-League Picks
Women’s Basketball Preseason Poll • Women’s Basketball All-League Picks

Breakout Candidates
Dante Treacy • Trevon Faulkner • Adrian Nelson
Daniel Oladapo • Amari Davis • Tanner Holden • Grant Basile

From Buzzer Beaten to Gone: The Story of the 2018-2019 Golden Grizzlies

Matt Dudek
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From Buzzer Beaten to Gone: The Story of the 2018-2019 Golden Grizzlies

The 2018-2019 Oakland Golden Grizzlies were a few seconds away from the Horizon League Championship. A dagger three from Drew McDonald just past the outstretched fingertips of Jaevin Cumberland ended their season. The team had already lost two players from the start of the season by that point.

Looking back less than two years later, not a single player from that team is still playing for Oakland, yet many are still playing college hoops and a few even at the Division 1 level. While we may not know why they have all left, it’s quite clear there was a problem with that team and their commitment to the school or their coach.

Let’s take a look at where they are now.

The Early Season Transfers:

Brailen Neely – He was the first Grizzly to transfer and he did it early in the season. Was it a playing time issue as he was benched for an undisclosed issue and Braden Norris took over or something more? We will likely never know for sure. There was talk of re-injuring his knee but that was never confirmed. He transferred to Wayne State where last year he was named to the All-GLIAC First Team. Neely is playing his final season this year coming in averaging 19 ppg and almost eight assists.

Jordan Nobles – The Grad Transfer from Eastern Michigan spent the first half of the season with the Grizzlies. He played in the first 11 games and started 8. While he wasn’t filling the stat sheet, he was providing solid leadership for a young team and playing well defensively on the wing. However, he did not academically qualify for the second semester. Nobles went on to play professionally in Portugal.

The Summer of 2019, When Things Started to Turn:

Braden Norris – The freshman had taken over control at Oakland. He averaged almost 36 minutes per game, ran the offense racking up 5 assists a game and seemed to be the future of Golden Grizzly Basketball. Then, his name was in the transfer portal and he was off to Loyola-Chicago. There was very little talk of why other than Kampe saying sometimes freshmen just don’t like the first college they go to. This was one of the worst transfers OU took as it set them off without a point guard the following season.

Stan Scott – Was not a big part of the equation for Oakland. He was a late signing and never seemed to have a big role for OU; was very athletic but didn’t play major minutes in his time, and an energy guy in stretches but never expected to be a big piece of the puzzle. Transferred to Divison II Missouri Southern State University where he averaged 3.7 points, 2.0 rebounds and 0.6 rebounds per game.

James Beck – The 6-8 forward was seen as a major get for Oakland. After only two seasons, he took his game to Miami (OH). In some ways it’s tough to blame him. Beck was buried on the depth chart behind Xavier Hill-Mais and Brad Brechting. However, he seems like the kind of player that Oakland has been missing. He sat out last year and opened his 2020-2021 campaign for the RedHawks with a double double. He should be a major contributor for them in the MAC.

Jaevin Cumberland – Only a few days after Drew McDonald made the game winning three over him, Cumberland, Brechting and Hill-Mais put out a press release through Oakland saying they would all be back to avenge the loss and play out their senior season. Then, Cumberland’s name popped up in the transfer portal. He flirted with a few different high major schools but ultimately settled on Cincinnati where he joined forces with his cousin Jarron. He scored just under 9 ppg, down from 17 the year before with Oakland. While he surely wanted to play with family and be closer to home, it’s tough to not wonder if he hurt his pro chances with the move to Cincinnati for his final year.

Karmari Newman – Newman was a very late transfer at the end of the summer. While nothing official was ever released, it was clear there was more to his transfer than anything strictly basketball related. The George Mason transfer ended up at William Penn University, an NAIA school in Iowa. Last year he averaged almost 16 ppg making 108 three-pointers.

One More and Gone:

Kenny Pittman, Jr. – Pittman was another late signing for OU, and another from the Simeon pipeline after Kendrick Nunn but before Zion Young. Pittman wasn’t highly recruited, but was thought to be a shooter. However, he never found much playing time for Oakland. He did stay for the 2019-2020 season before leaving this past summer for Wayne State University. After two seasons it was clear he was not a part of Kampe’s future plans.

Tray Maddox, Jr. – The one player Oakland fans were most concerned would leave the program after experiencing so much loss in the 2018-19 season. The sophomore started 31 games and averaged 9 points per game for the 2019-2020 squad. However, it was clear at multiple points throughout the season that Maddox and Kampe weren’t seeing eye to eye. Tray was sick during the Horizon League tournament and didn’t even dress for what would be Oakland’s final game. He gambled on himself in the summer and chose Cal State Fullerton where he expects to be a focal point of the team. He wanted to have more freedom and play his style in a way Kampe would never allow. Now he will get his chance in California.

Babatunde Sowunmi – The Nigerian-born 6-10 center lasted just over two years. He was the last of the 2018-2019 team to leave Rochester as he put himself in the portal 2 weeks into the 2020-2021 season. While he had a body that Jon Rothstein described as, “looks like it was carved out of ice,” it never translated to the basketball court. Oakland coaches say he was probably the player most effected by the COVID shutdown all summer. He needed to get into the gym and develop his skills on the court but he simply couldn’t and once again was finding himself on the end of the bench for the season. Instead, he will look to take his size elsewhere.

Congrats! You Made It!

The only two players from the 2018-19 team to make it through their entire playing career at Oakland were Hill-Mais and Brechting. The two longtime bigs are actually celebrated here for doing something normally pretty common, finishing their entire eligibility with the school that recruited them. Hill-Mais would have transferred due to lack of playing time if not for a redshirt season he took to get out from under the shadow of Jalen Hayes and Brechting lost a year to injury. However, congratulations to those two, the only players from the 2018-2019 team to make it through!

It’s been well talked about that the transfer portal is doing a number on mid-major schools. But for a team that was seconds away from The Horizon League Championship game to lose that many players in such a short amount of time should be alarming.

Further, this article only chronicles the team from two years ago. It does not even factor in the additional four freshmen that transferred this past summer after only season. While there are likely ways to explain a few transfers, especially in the transfer portal era we are living in in college basketball, to try and explain an entire team being gone in two years with only two graduations is a quite possibly a bigger problem.

Wright State drops season opener to Marshall, 80-64

Nick Lorensen
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Wright State drops season opener to Marshall, 80-64

Raiders run out of gas in season debut

Wright State opened up their season on Thursday as they hosted the Marshall Thundering Herd. The Raiders had previously been forced to cancel a trip to the University of Illinois due to a combination of COVID-19 protocols and injuries left the team too shorthanded. Wright State last faced off with Marshall in 2007 when the Raiders won at the Nutter Center, 77-70.

It began all Raiders as they came out to a 21-8 lead at the under 12 media timeout. Wright State’s Trey Calvin picked up nine of his 16 points, and Loudon Love eight of his 11. They were primarily quiet the rest of the night.

Love — the Horizon League Preseason Player of the Year — got into early foul trouble, allowing the Thundering Herd to get back into the game. At halftime, they cut the Raiders lead down to 34-29. Coming out of the half, it seemed as Marshall would set the tone for the half with an alley-oop pass and a quick layup.

The Raiders didn’t exactly let that happen, running out to a 45-35 lead with 15:59 remaining. From there, it was all Thundering Herd. They took a 48-47 lead at the under 12 media timeout and never trailed again. Marshall would go on an extended 21-4 run, have it broken up by the Raiders, then take a 60-49 lead at the under 8 media timeout.

The Raiders would give one last effort, cutting the Marshall lead down to four with 5:13 remaining but the Herd finished the game on a 15-3 run, winning by a final score of 80-64.

Taevion Kinsey led the way with 31 points for Marshall. Trey Calvin led the Raiders with 16 points, and Grand Canyon transfer Tim Finke had 10 in his Wright State debut. Tanner Holden scored 13, and was one rebound shy of a double-double. Loudon Love would notch his 35th double-double of his Raider career with 11 points a team-high 16 rebounds.

Wright State will look to rebound on Saturday as they host Miami (OH) at the Nutter Center. Tip-off is at 4:00 and the game will be streamed on ESPN3. Like Wright State, the Redhawks have played just one game this season: an 81-67 victory over North Dakota on November 25.

Horizon League Breakout Candidate: Grant Basile

John Parker
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Horizon League Breakout Candidate: Grant Basile

Basile could go from reserve to star in 2021

If it had happened in any other season, Grant Basile’s freshman year likely wouldn’t have warranted consideration for anything more than the fifth and final spot on the Horizon League All-Freshman team. While his stats compare favorably to Malachi Smith’s in 2019 and Jalen Tate’s in 2018, there are several seasons where his 6.2 points and 4.3 rebounds wouldn’t have even earned him an All-Freshman Team spot. Which makes him a perfect candidate for the next type of breakout performer.

When looking for potential breakout players, former Sports Illustrated writer (and current Toronto Raptors Director of Prospect Strategy) Luke Winn put together a formula to pick out players who posted pedestrian statistics as freshmen but could erupt onto the scene as sophomores. While the formula isn’t public, Winn describes the basic parameters as follows:

The formula strives to avoid too-obvious selections, and therefore its picks are restricted to players that averaged single-digit points last season and played not much more than 20 minutes per game.

During their time on the court, these Breakout Sophomore Formula picks took a notable share of their team’s shots (in most cases, 23% or higher) with a respectable level of efficiency (an offensive rating of at least 100, or one point per possession). They’re also likely to receive more playing time due to changes in roster composition.

While Winn’s handful of picks ranged from college basketball’s Blue Bloods to mid-to-low-major Ivy Leaguers, this site is obviously limited to one league. As such, there aren’t a ton of players who come close to fitting the bill. This is especially true coming off of what was a fairly underwhelming freshman class. If you look exclusively at last year’s All-Freshman picks, Amari Davis and Tanner Holden are excluded from this list for scoring too much and playing too many minutes. Blake Lampman, CJ Wilbourn and Summit League All-Freshman Team pick Deonte Billups are excluded for having usage rates well below 23 percent last year. Grant Basile is the lone player who fits the mold not just among All-Freshman Team picks, but in the league as a whole.

Basile averaged just 6.2 points and 14.3 minutes per game, both under the “obvious” thresholds that disqualify Davis and Holden. His 23.8 percent usage rate and 101.3 offensive rating are both in range to show he has the potential to be an efficient offensive weapon on a higher volume of shots as a sophomore. Finally, the graduation of several key players should give Basile the opportunity to play a much bigger role in 2021. While 2020 Second Team All-League forward Bill Wampler will be the most relevant to a Basile breakout, the departures of Cole Gentry and Jordan Ash should make the Raiders more likely to favor larger lineups over those with extra guards. Wright State Head Coach Scott Nagy indicated that lineups featuring both Basile and Horizon League Preseason Player of the Year Loudon Love would be more common this year.

Even without diving too far into the advanced statistics, a big season from Basile following the graduation of Wampler makes a lot of sense. When Love was injured last season and Basile was forced into the lineup, he averaged 13.8 points and 10 rebounds with an effective field goal percentage of 56.4. The Raiders went 4-1 in that stretch, tallying a victory over Western Kentucky and its projected NBA draft pick center Charles Bassey.

So whether you look at the advanced metrics that helped a former Sports Illustrated writer land a job scouting college players in the NBA or just the brief glimpse of what we all witnessed when he was thrust into the spotlight, Grant Basile clearly seems like a player primed for a breakout season in 2021. Battling with Love and fellow All-Freshman Team pick Holden for shots might keep him from showing the upper limits to his potential this year, but don’t be shocked if the 6-foot-9 forward is a rising star in 2021.

Miss anything from Preview Week(s)? Check it all out below:

HoriZone Roundtable Predictions
HoriZone Roundtable Preseason Poll • Preseason All-League Teams
If we had an All-Newcomer Team… • All-Freshman Team Picks

Team Previews
Wright State • Youngstown State • Robert Morris • Cleveland State
UIC • Oakland • Northern Kentucky • Detroit Mercy
Green Bay • Purdue Fort Wayne • Milwaukee • IUPUI

Official Horizon League Predictions
Men’s Basketball Preseason Poll • Men’s Basketball All-League Picks
Women’s Basketball Preseason Poll • Women’s Basketball All-League Picks

Breakout Candidates
Dante Treacy • Trevon Faulkner • Adrian Nelson
Daniel Oladapo • Amari Davis • Tanner Holden • C.J. Wilbourn

Horizon League Breakout Candidate: Tanner Holden

John Parker
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Horizon League Breakout Candidate: Tanner Holden

Holden looks the part of past sophomore breakout players

Last season was an odd one for the Horizon League All-Freshman Team. On one hand, you had Amari Davis acting as Green Bay’s second option but producing at a level that has undoubtedly already caused the HoriZone Roundtable to receive pushback for trying to call him a breakout candidate. On the other hand you had three players that likely would’ve been vying for the last All-Freshman spot in previous seasons in Grant Basile, CJ Wilbourn and Blake Lampman. In the middle, you have Wright State’s Tanner Holden.

Holden’s 11.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game look comparable to several previous All-Freshman team picks who went onto stardom as sophomores. But the raw stats are just a part of the intrigue in Holden as a breakout candidate in 2021. Holden hit 61.1 percent of his shots from the field and 42.4 percent from 3-point range as a freshman. Oddly, the only shots he struggled with were the ones where he wasn’t defended; he hit just 60.9 percent of his free throws. Nonetheless, an effective field goal percentage of 64.2 is incredible for a player still getting used to the college game.

The fact that Holden was so statistically strong on a team that won the league by two games suggests he’d likely fit into the same category as Amari Davis if he had chosen to attend a different Horizon League school last year. Regardless, his production and the likelihood that the Raiders will finish at or near the top of the Horizon League should mean he’ll end up comparing favorably to several past All-Freshman Team picks who had breakout sophomore seasons.

While Holden’s awesome statistics and efficiency out of the gate are reason enough to believe he’s going to be a special player in the Horizon League, he probably wouldn’t be able to reach that level this season if not for the graduation of 2020 Second Team All-Horizon League forward Bill Wampler and Third Team All-Horizon League guard Cole Gentry. WORDS.

Rashad Williams averaged 10.8 points per game as a Horizon League All-Freshman Team pick at Cleveland State in 2019 before erupting for 19.5 points per game after transferring to Oakland as a sophomore. While he didn’t earn All-League honors, he absolutely would have if he maintained those numbers for longer and didn’t initially have his transfer waiver denied by the NCAA. Williams is a preseason First Team All-Horizon League pick according to both the HoriZone Roundtable and the Horizon League this year.

A year earlier, Cleveland State had another standout freshman who had a breakout sophomore season. Fortunately for the Vikings, this one actually stuck around a little longer. Tyree Appleby averaged 11.8 points, 4.0 assists and 2.4 rebounds per game as a freshman in 2018 before becoming a Second Team All-League performer as a sophomore. He averaged 17.8 points, 5.6 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game before deciding to transfer to Florida for his final two seasons of eligibility.

2016 saw two All-Freshman Team picks who erupted into stars as sophomores. Northern Kentucky forward Drew McDonald went from 10.5 points and 6.2 rebounds per game as a freshman to 16.4 points, 7.7 rebounds and a First Team All-Horizon League selection as a sophomore. Cleveland State’s Rob Edwards saw his numbers jump from 12.4 points and 3.4 rebounds per game as a freshman to 16.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and a Second Team All-Horizon League selection as a sophomore. McDonald finished his career as the 2019 Horizon League Player of the Year while Edwards finished his career at Arizona State as yet another Cleveland State player to transfer away from the Vikings.

There’s plenty to suggest that a healthy Tanner Holden will make everyone look foolish for leaving him off of their Horizon League Preseason All-League teams. Few of the previous players who had his level of production were returning to teams strong enough to make an All-League selection as a second option possible. The departures of Wampler and Gentry allow Holden to naturally slide into a role as that second option as a sophomore. That combination should create a situation where Holden will wind up hard to leave off of one of the first two All-Horizon League teams.

Miss anything from Preview Week(s)? Check it all out below:

HoriZone Roundtable Predictions
HoriZone Roundtable Preseason Poll • Preseason All-League Teams
If we had an All-Newcomer Team… • All-Freshman Team Picks

Team Previews
Wright State • Youngstown State • Robert Morris • Cleveland State
UIC • Oakland • Northern Kentucky • Detroit Mercy
Green Bay • Purdue Fort Wayne • Milwaukee • IUPUI

Official Horizon League Predictions
Men’s Basketball Preseason Poll • Men’s Basketball All-League Picks
Women’s Basketball Preseason Poll • Women’s Basketball All-League Picks

Breakout Candidates
Dante Treacy • Trevon Faulkner • Adrian Nelson

Horizon League Breakout Candidate: Amari Davis

John Parker
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Horizon League Breakout Candidate: Amari Davis

We all know it’s coming, that’s why it’s so hard to say it

Can the league’s ninth-leading scorer really be considered a candidate to break out?

Yes, but everyone has trouble calling it a breakout because it’s obviously going to happen.

If Amari Davis’ production wound up similar to what it was last year where he was a Third Team All-Horizon League selection after averaging 15.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game it would be considered a massive disappointment. We’re expecting the standout freshman to improve going into his sophomore year, particularly now that he’s stepping out of 2020 First Team All-League guard JayQuan McCloud’s shadow.

If not for the introduction of the All-League Third Team, Davis would’ve gone without any honors last year except those reserved for freshmen. Now he’s a near-universal All-League First Team Preseason pick. Any player who went from exclusively All-Freshman honors to the First Team All-League would rightly be considered a breakout player. Is the introduction of the All-League Third Team making it that difficult to call Davis’ emergence as Green Bay’s go-to guy a breakout?

One element that might make it hard to call the progression that everyone sees coming a breakout is how Davis went about earning Horizon League Freshman of the Year. If he had been a single-digit scorer who stuffed the stat sheet in other ways, it might be easier to accept that he was going to break out by becoming Green Bay’s go-to scorer while still doing all of those little things as a sophomore.

For Davis, a big part of a breakout season will likely involve him filling the rest of the stat sheet. PJ Pipes should be the biggest beneficiary of McCloud’s graduation by filling in for him at point guard, but Davis will have the ball at the end of the shot clock far more often in 2021 than he did last year. In addition to being the team’s go-to scorer from the start of the season, he’ll have the ball late in the shot clock with more opportunities to drive and dish that will result in his assist totals improving.

If there’s one thing that might keep Davis from living up to his Preseason First Team All-League projections, it’s the coaching change Green Bay underwent this offseason. The change from Linc Darner’s up-tempo offense to a branch off of the Bo Ryan coaching tree with Bo’s son Will may result in the Phoenix playing a dramatically different style this year than the team did in 2020. While it’s likely Ryan would wait to install his own style if the team returned much of the talent from last year’s third place Horizon League finisher, Davis and Pipes are the only players who saw extensive minutes coming back for the Phoenix. With so many teams projected to be so comparable, the All-League teams may come down to who posts the most impressive counting stats. If a dramatically slowed tempo deflates Davis’ stats, he might not jump off the page enough for First Team All-League honors and an argument against a breakout season could be made.

Assuming Green Bay doesn’t play at a dramatically slower pace under Will Ryan than it did under Linc Darner, Amari Davis’ first full season as go-to-guy should be a spectacular one on the court and the stat sheet. Given how heavily praised he already is it might be difficult to consider him a candidate to break out, but a jump all the way to a First Team All-League selection would absolutely qualify.

Miss anything from Preview Week(s)? Check it all out below:

HoriZone Roundtable Predictions
HoriZone Roundtable Preseason Poll • Preseason All-League Teams
If we had an All-Newcomer Team… • All-Freshman Team Picks

Team Previews
Wright State • Youngstown State • Robert Morris • Cleveland State
UIC • Oakland • Northern Kentucky • Detroit Mercy
Green Bay • Purdue Fort Wayne • Milwaukee • IUPUI

Official Horizon League Predictions
Men’s Basketball Preseason Poll • Men’s Basketball All-League Picks
Women’s Basketball Preseason Poll • Women’s Basketball All-League Picks

Breakout Candidates
Dante Treacy • Trevon Faulkner • Adrian Nelson

Horizon League Women’s Basketball Power Rankings – Week 1

John Parker
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Horizon League Women’s Basketball Power Rankings – Week 1

The Horizon League got off to a strong start to its 2020-21 season last last week. The league has already notched several wins over traditionally stronger leagues in the MAC and Missouri Valley Conference. While many came from teams that were expected to be strong, some came completely out of left field. While the sample size is obviously minuscule, early indications are that this season could be an incredibly competitive one for much of the Horizon League.

A quick note: Wright State and Youngstown State have shut down women’s basketball activities due to positive COVID-19 cases. As such, both will be excluded from the rankings. As with the men’s basketball power rankings, teams that are forced to cancel games pose zero threat to win those games.

  1. IUPUI Jaguars (1-0, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    While it’s a little difficult to get much info from the Horizon League’s unanimous pick to repeat as league champion absolutely annihilating a team that was four points away from being projected eleventh in the 12-team MAC, IUPUI can’t be dinged for doing what it was supposed to do. Macee Williams began her quest for a Horizon League Player of the Year three-peat with 22 points and 10 rebounds.

    It’ll obviously take a lot more information before we are able to see that she can keep it up, but Destiny Perkins did an excellent job in her efforts to replace 2020 Second Team All-League performer Holly Hoopinger. Perkins scored 14 points on 5-for-8 shooting while adding 6 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals. If she can maintain anything close to that level of play, Rachel McLimore might have trouble elevating from her 2020 Third Team All-League selection to her Second Team All-League preseason projection.
  2. Green Bay Phoenix (1-0, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    Perennial Horizon League contender Green Bay got its 2021 season off on the right foot with a 69-61 win over Drake from the Missouri Valley Conference. While quality wins are nothing new for the Phoenix, starting off the year with a win over the projected fourth place team from the MVC could set the tone for a great year.

    Preseason Second Team All-Horizon League pick Caitlin Hibner made an early case that she was a First Team snub with 22 points and 10 rebounds and a 10-for-13 shooting night. It’s difficult to see Green Bay living up to its second place projection in the Horizon League Preseason Poll without Hibner continuing to prove she’s a First Team All-League player.
  3. Northern Kentucky Norse (0-1, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    While the Norse didn’t win their first contest of the year, going to overtime against the projected fourth place team in the American Athletic Conference is a very impressive way to start the season. Ally Niece – a projected first team pick on the Horizon League All-League Teams – scored 17 points in the game.

    An exciting development from NKU is that Louisville transfer and former 5-star recruit Lindsey Duvall is immediately eligible this year. In her Northern Kentucky debut, Duvall was the team’s second leading scorer with 14 points on 4-of-6 shooting from the field. She came off the bench, but was the team’s lone player to shoot better than 50 percent from the field.
  4. Milwaukee Panthers (2-0, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    The lone team to win multiple games so far in the Horizon League, Milwaukee’s 2021 season is definitely off to an encouraging start. The Panthers . Milwaukee entered the year projected seventh in the Horizon League, so beating the projected third place finishers in the MAC and the Missouri Valley – both traditionally stronger leagues than the Horizon – is an incredible accomplishment. Perhaps more impressive, those two challenging wins mark the first time Milwaukee has started 2-0 since the 2009-10 season.

    Preseason Second Team All-League pick Brandi Bisping’s 16.5 points and 10 rebounds per game are obviously leading the way for the Panthers. She comfortably leads the team in scoring and is second in rebounds behind Megan Walstad, whose returned to action for the Panthers after missing last season with injury has been a big part of the 2-0 start.
  5. Robert Morris Colonials (0-0, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    Unlike on the men’s side, Robert Morris didn’t officially delay the start of its 2021 women’s basketball season. While a rumored contest against Penn State obviously didn’t happen on Sunday, the Colonials will be included this week despite having yet to play.

    The former NEC powerhouse is dinged slightly as Milwaukee was projected behind them in the preseason poll but has already had the chance to get off to an impressive start, but will have plenty of time to prove itself in the Horizon League.
  6. Cleveland State Vikings (0-0, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    Like on the men’s side, Cleveland State has opted to shorten its season dramatically and has yet to take the court despite not having a shutdown. That probably shouldn’t come as a shock given that Head Coach Chris Kielsmeier was one of the first confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world of college basketball back in March.

    Unlike Robert Morris, the Vikings maintain preseason poll expectations this week, as nobody below them in the poll has put forth an impressive enough effort to jump a team coming off of a 21-win season.
  7. UIC Flames (1-1, 0-0 in Horizon League Play)

    UIC pulled off what is easily the most surprising win of the young Horizon League Women’s Basketball season on Sunday with a 66-62 victory at Eastern Michigan. The Eagles were coming off of a 16-win season and expected to surpass last year’s sixth place tie in the MAC standings. The Flames won 14 games total in the last three seasons and were projected to finish in last place for a third straight season in the Horizon League Preseason Poll.

    Freshmen have led the way for the Flames so far. Jaida McCloud, Keona Schenck and Kristian Young have all averaged double figures while grabbing over five rebounds per contest. McCloud’s four steals per game have helped the Flames play an exciting, up-tempo brand of basketball.
  8. Oakland Golden Grizzlies (0-2, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    Oakland started the year hoping to take a step forward this season after returning virtually all of its production from 2020. Those hopes didn’t get off on the right foot. While it was going to be a longshot for a team projected in the bottom half of the Horizon League to beat a Top 25 opponent, letting Michigan’s Naz Hillmon single-handedly outscore the Golden Grizzlies before she was subbed out for the night in is still a disappointing result.

    Oakland appeared ready to bounce back, taking a five point lead into the half on the road at Toledo. But a six-point third quarter buried OU, and Toledo came out on top 71-59. It’s an obviously disappointing result for a team whose main reason for optimism is returning much of last season’s young core.
  9. Detroit Mercy Titans (0-2, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    Detroit Mercy probably feels it let one get away on Sunday. The Titans erased a five point fourth quarter deficit and take the lead late against Indiana State, only to run out of steam and lose 84-79. A season-opening loss where the team once again came to life in the fourth quarter before falling 81-73 shouldn’t be discouraging for a team that has regularly found itself near the bottom of the Horizon League lately.

    Former Big East All-Freshman Team pick Kaela Webb – a transfer from Providence – has been a standout so far for the Titans. She’s among the Horizon League’s leading scorers with 19.5 points per game. Webb seems like someone who fell victim to transfers being overlooked for All-League consideration and could single-handedly elevate the Titans final standing this year.
  10. Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons (0-1, 0-0 in Horizon League play)

    Purdue Fort Wayne rounds out our first Horizon League Women’s basketball poll after only getting one opportunity to play and being easily beaten 66-50 by Southern Illinois-Edwardsville. Even among teams searching for a win, other schools have put up more impressive efforts against stronger competition.
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