HoriZone Roundtable

If it had happened in any other season, Grant Basile's freshman year likely wouldn't have warranted consideration for anything more than the fifth and final spot on the Horizon League All-Freshman team. While his stats compare favorably to Malachi Smith's in 2019 and Jalen Tate's in 2018, there are several seasons where his 6.2 points and 4.3 rebounds wouldn't have even earned him an All-Freshman Team spot. Which makes him a perfect candidate for the next type of breakout performer. When looking for potential breakout players, former Sports Illustrated writer (and current Toronto Raptors Director of Prospect Strategy) Luke Winn put together a formula to pick out players who posted pedestrian statistics as freshmen but could erupt onto the scene as sophomores. While the formula isn't public, Winn describes the basic parameters as follows:

Last season was an odd one for the Horizon League All-Freshman Team. On one hand, you had Amari Davis acting as Green Bay's second option but producing at a level that has undoubtedly already caused the HoriZone Roundtable to receive pushback for trying to call him a breakout candidate. On the other hand you had three players that likely would've been vying for the last All-Freshman spot in previous seasons in Grant Basile, CJ Wilbourn and Blake Lampman. In the middle, you have Wright State's Tanner Holden. Holden's 11.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game look comparable to several previous All-Freshman team picks who went onto stardom as sophomores. But the raw stats are just a part of the intrigue in Holden as a breakout candidate in 2021. Holden hit 61.1 percent of his shots from the field and 42.4 percent from 3-point range as a freshman. Oddly, the only shots he struggled with were the ones where he wasn't defended; he hit just 60.9 percent of his free throws. Nonetheless, an effective field goal percentage of 64.2 is incredible for a player still getting used to the college game.

Can the league's ninth-leading scorer really be considered a candidate to break out? Yes, but everyone has trouble calling it a breakout because it's obviously going to happen. If Amari Davis' production wound up similar to what it was last year where he was a Third Team All-Horizon League selection after averaging 15.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game it would be considered a massive disappointment. We're expecting the standout freshman to improve going into his sophomore year, particularly now that he's stepping out of 2020 First Team All-League guard JayQuan McCloud's shadow.

The Horizon League got off to a strong start to its 2020-21 season last last week. The league has already notched several wins over traditionally stronger leagues in the MAC and Missouri Valley Conference. While many came from teams that were expected to be strong, some came completely out of left field. While the sample size is obviously minuscule, early indications are that this season could be an incredibly competitive one for much of the Horizon League. A quick note: Wright State and Youngstown State have shut down women's basketball activities due to positive COVID-19 cases. As such, both will be excluded from the rankings. As with the men's basketball power rankings, teams that are forced to cancel games pose zero threat to win those games.

You know what's more ridiculous than doing a Week 1 power ranking for a mid-major league that suffered massive roster turnover while only two teams have played multiple games? Doing it during a pandemic that has resulted in most of the league still waiting to start the season. But if I'm enough of a glutton for punishment that I can do this column for a full season of 2020 Horizon League nonsense, I'm sure I can handle this week.

Daniel Oladapo joined Oakland last year after a stellar freshman year at Chipola College where he averaged 14.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per game on his way to being a First Team All-Panhandle Conference selection. Oladapo was an instant-impact performer with the Golden Grizzlies as well, finishing fourth on the team in scoring with 9.2 points per game and third on the team with 6.3 rebounds per game in 2020 despite playing off the bench for 13 of his 33 appearances. He accomplished those numbers despite sharing the frontcourt with First Team All-Horizon League forward Xavier Hill Mais and senior center Brad Brechting. With Hill-Mais and Brechting gone, Oladapo becomes the obvious focal point of the frontcourt this year. His 26.3 minutes per game as a sophomore could increase pretty significantly in 2021, and early indications are that his main competition at forward will come from freshmen. As is the case with Adrian Nelson at Northern Kentucky, this will present Oladapo with a great opportunity to establish himself as a force on the glass while his young teammates get acclimated to college basketball.

At first glance, many Horizon League fans were miffed when Lindy's predicted Nelson to be a Second Team All-League player this year. Nelson averaged just 4.6 points in under 18 minutes per game in 2020. When a player like Youngstown State's Naz Bohannon — who regularly posts double-doubles — can't seem to find his way onto an All-League team, it's hard to see how someone who has scored double figures five times in 59 career games could work his way into that conversation.