Updated February 19, 2022
With three games remain in the Horizon League schedule, multiple scenarios exist for five Horizon League teams to take the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. The top four seeds, of course, include a first-round bye, but the regular-season champ would also receive an automatic bid to the NIT, at worst.
Of all the teams vying for the top spot, only Cleveland State remains in control of their own destiny, as long as they beat Green Bay and Detroit Mercy. For the remaining four (Oakland, Northern Kentucky, Wright State, Purdue Fort Wayne), some help will be needed for them to claim the regular season crown. CSU’s win over Milwaukee ended any chance of Youngstown State or Detroit Mercy to take the top spot.
Here are the scenarios for each school:
Cleveland State clinches the No. 1 seed if:
CSU finishes 3-0 or 2-1
CSU finishes 1-2 AND Oakland finishes 1-2 AND WSU and NKU finish 2-1
Remaining games: at Green Bay, at Detroit Mercy, at Oakland
Oakland clinches the No. 1 seed if:
Oakland finishes 2-1 AND CSU finishes 1-2
Oakland finishes 1-2 AND CSU finishes 0-3 AND WSU and PFW finish 2-1 AND NKU finishes 1-2
Remaining games: Northern Kentucky, Purdue Fort Wayne, Cleveland State
Northern Kentucky clinches the No. 1 seed if:
NKU finishes 3-0 AND CSU finishes 0-3 AND Oakland, PFW and WSU finish 2-1
Remaining games: at Oakland, Robert Morris, Youngstown State
Wright State clinches the No. 1 seed if:
WSU finishes 3-0 AND CSU finishes 1-2 AND NKU and Oakland finish 2-1
WSU finishes 2-1 AND CSU finishes 0-3 AND Oakland and NKU finish 1-2 AND PFW finishes 2-1
Remaining games: at Detroit Mercy, Youngstown State, Robert Morris
Purdue Fort Wayne clinches the No. 1 seed if:
PFW finishes 2-1 AND CSU finishes 0-3 AND Oakland, NKU and WSU finish 2-1
Remaining games: at Milwaukee, at Oakland, at Detroit Mercy
There is a scenario in which Cleveland State and Purdue Fort Wayne can finished tied with the same record. Per the Horizon League’s rules, the first determining factor in tie-breakers is head-to-head competition. In this case, CSU would get the top seed, by virtue of holding a 2-1 edge on PFW.