Comparing Oakland to past mid-major darlings

When a mid-major team constructs a run in the NCAA Tournament, the fan base of that team will likely have a thought that runs through their head.

“This is going to change everything.”

For some, this is the case. Butler’s run to back to back national championship game appearances took them from the Horizon League, to eventually the Big East program they are known as today. Loyola Chicago’s run to the Final Four has turned them into somewhat of a national brand. Sister Jean is still talked about today, while they have also made a move up in conferences, to the Atlantic 10. Transcendent teams at VCU and Wichita State got their programs rolling into much success and a move up from the CAA and MVC to the A10 and American. 

However, it doesn’t always work that way. For teams who have pulled off historic upsets in the first weekend, there isn’t much of a track record for a meteoric rise. For 16 seeds UMBC and FDU, the names will always be remembered, but from the outside, the momentum didn’t provide a major leap forward in terms of success. UMBC has had some nice seasons since their First Round win over Virginia, but they remain in the American East and have not been back to the tournament. FDU experienced a 4th place finish in the NEC a year after beating Purdue. 

Second weekend teams like Florida Gulf Coast, Princeton, Oral Roberts and Saint Peters make up the middle group of the NCAA Tournament darlings. FGCU never made the magic happen again in the tournament, but was able to win three regular season championships in the next five years, while making two NCAA Tournaments. ORU’s Sweet 16 run was followed up by a good season, then a magical 30 win year that came to an end in the First Round of the tournament. Saint Peters marched their way to the Elite Eight, had a below average season, but found their way back to the tournament this year. Princeton followed up their Sweet 16 run with another IVY League winning season, but fell short of the NCAA Tournament.

So, what does all that mean for Oakland? Well let’s break it down. There are five main groups in a program that many point to as what is affected after a major tournament upset. Coaching, money, schedule, your roster/recruiting and your affiliation/brand. The following will compare Oakland to other schools that have posted a landmark tournament victory, in order to attempt to project what the aftermath of beating Kentucky could realistically look like.

Coaching

When a small school becomes the darling of the NCAA Tournament, the big boys take notice. In this era of the transfer portal, they take notice of the players, sure, but the head coach garners plenty of interest.

 Of the 10 schools that were listed above, three lost their head coaches immediately following their initial tourney run, while six of the remaining seven left the program within the next three seasons. 

With Greg Kampe almost assuredly not going anywhere, this puts Oakland ahead of the curve of some of the other schools they have joined in tournament lore. 

Saint Peters, FDU and FGCU had to pick up the pieces from losing their head coaches to bigger jobs, with FGCU keeping the train rolling with a new head coach, while FDU and Saint Peters struggled immediately following their run. Saint Peters did make a tournament appearance last season however. 

The best schools to compare with Oaklands situation in this category, would be Oral Roberts, UMBC and Princeton. These three were able to retain their coaches, and did not have the transcendent final four type runs that Oakland also did not have. 

Based on the results, Oakland should feel good about staying towards the top of the league, while also understanding how hard it is to replicate success. All three of those programs won a conference championship with the same coach within the next three seasons, but never advanced in the NCAA Tournament. 

Money

It is hard to know the full impact that the tournament wins had on each school individually, and it is also hard to know how much of an impact it had on Oakland only a few months removed from the Kentucky win. So let’s just look at what is known from Oakland’s end. 

First, winning a game in the NCAA Tournament comes with a prize. A winning team in the NCAA Tournament gets an estimated couple hundred thousand dollars, plus an added bonus for the next five years. 

Next, all the miscellaneous things that bring money into the department. Things like Louisville fans buying Oakland shirts, fans sending in donations to the collective, all add up to cash coming in. 

There are other things like enrollment increases and gifts to the program, but we will have to wait further down the line to see the full impact of those. 

Money is so ingrained in athletics that although this section is over, it will be mentioned in the rest of the sections of the article plenty of times. Coaches, players, brand moves, schedules, conferences all revolve around money. Let’s dive in.

Schedule

Becoming a successful mid major program and having a massive upset under your belt can work both ways in scheduling. It may be harder to schedule quality opponents because they do not want to lose to you, which could explain some delay on Oakalnd’s schedule at first. 

Some schools like VCU or Wichita State experienced trouble getting quality teams on the schedule, which could have affected their potential postseason aspirations in terms of seeding, draws, etc. 

However, having momentum as a program can get you into better situations with your schedule as well, and Oakland has found themselves on that side of the coin. Credit to schools like Boise State, Illinois, Kansas for not being afraid to take the challenge on, and of course to Michigan State for being a staple on the Oakland calendar. 

But some events can be attributed directly to the March Madness success. John Calipari’s move to Arkansas creates a game between the Razorbacks and Golden Grizzlies that will create national buzz. Being invited to the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii is a massive stage for a program like Oakland that otherwise would likely have not happened. Scoring a neutral site exhibition game with Michigan may have been impacted by the momentum of the Oakland program. 

All these high leverage games lead us back to the big thing as well. Money. 

Adding up the money coming in from the buy games, plus the MTE, the total is in the $400,000 range. That is massive. This means that not only will Oakland have a chance to win on the biggest stages in the country, but they will have a consolation prize even if they fall short.

Players 

All the other stuff is nice after a win like Oakland had, but you can’t win without players. 

Like the schedule, this works both ways. The negative, like the coaching, is that if you are good enough to beat big boy teams, big boy teams want those players. And in this era where money is allowed to talk, it can be hard to keep those guys around after being on such a big stage. 

Someone like Trey Townsend was probably already gone, but saw his asking price get driven up heavily by the tournament run. Of course, you would make this trade, but without an appearance in the NCAA Tournament, maybe someone like Chris Conway doesn’t blow up and sticks around. 

But while the portal takes away, it can also bring some gifts as well.

Greg Kampe’s history with shooters is well documented, and after Jack Gohlke’s March Madness performance, players around college basketball took notice. 

Shooters all over reached out to Oakland, saying “I can be the next Jack Gohlke.” This led to Oakland having many options, and even if something fell through, they were left with a plentiful supply of shooters. Oakland settled on Malcolm Christie and Jayson Woodrich from the portal. 

Player retainment is important as well. Looking back at previous cases, a team like Oral Roberts kept a good chunk of their Sweet 16 team together, and were right back in the tournament two years later. Oakland was able to keep a few guys like DQ Cole, Isaiah Jones and Buru Naivalurua, and it gives a head start into next year having vets that know what that high of March is like. 

While money is able to sway players away, it can be a reason to stay as well. More eyes on the program in the tournament means more fans, which means more potential donors to provide financial support to players, and Oakland was able to provide some cash to key guys on the roster, both new and old.

Brand/Conference Affiliation

This is the one that will most likely deter the dream of becoming the next Butler or VCU. Oakland is very happy in the Horizon League, and most likely does not have what it takes to make a jump up in conferences, and when looking at the formula for what it takes to become a power conference or borderline power conference program, that is most likely how it works. The goal, instead, should be sustained success in the Horizon League, something that Princeton has achieved in the IVY. 

Oakland fans should be looking forward to the future, while appreciating how hard the achievement of the past is. How successful the future will be is something that can only be answered with time, and it will be a fascinating watch.