Welcome to Quarterfinal Thursday in the Horizon League, arguably the most compelling single day of the HL’s year given the season-on-the-line stakes, the number of games on the docket, and the fact that it’s the last time until November that anyone in the conference will play on their home floor (outside of the possible exception of a WNIT game or two).
With the help of James Moon, one of our Wright State writers, Eric Fischer, who carries the Green Bay beat, and Milwaukee’s David Cunningham, here’s a look at the path to victory for each of the eight teams in action tonight – along with our picks to advance to the HL’s final four in Indianapolis next week.
6. Detroit Mercy at 3. Cleveland State
Staff Picks
| Team | Kyle | Eric | James | David |
| UDM | ||||
| CSU | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
How can Detroit Mercy win?
Though Detroit Mercy doesn’t have much of a conventional post game, the Titans excel at creating chaos down low, and finding ways to get their bevy of talented guards seams and clean looks at the basket. Makayla Jackson had a career-high 25 points in UDM’s first-round win over Milwaukee on Tuesday, largely through that avenue, while star freshman Kailey Starks is a frequent visitor as well.
The challenge will be finding that sort of production through a zone defense that is ideal for stopping it. But if they can, players like all-conference selections Aaliyah McQueen and Emaia O’Brien can go to work on the outside, and give the Titans the sort of offensive diversity that CSU struggled with in their final regular season game, a loss at Youngstown State.
Beyond that, though it may sound reductive, Detroit Mercy will have to live up to its Gritty City moniker and outwork the Vikings. The Titans are one of the Horizon League’s most opportunistic teams, and their odds of pulling off an upset will largely depend on their ability to force turnovers, rebound, and come away with 50-50 balls.
— Kyle Rossi
How can Cleveland State win?
As is often the case with the Vikings, their chances for victory will come down to how well they defend the perimeter. Cleveland State’s inconsistency in that area has frustrated Chris Kielsmeier all season, and had a significant role in each of CSU’s Horizon League losses – particularly upset defeats to Oakland and Northern Kentucky. They’ll certainly have their hands full again with Detroit Mercy, which boasts McQueen and O’Brien, along with standout distributor Myonna Hooper. Each has the capability to knock down deep balls (in fact, O’Brien hit six threes on UDM’s last visit to the Wolstein Center, exactly one month ago).
Offensively, CSU’s first choice is generally to work the ball through the middle of the floor with Jordana Reisma, and the 6-3 junior might have a big game against a Titans squad that isn’t particularly suited to slowing her down. Newly-crowned conference player of the year Mickayla Perdue and Sara Guerreiro are two of the HL’s assist leaders thanks largely to their ability to locate Reisma, though each is obviously a significant scoring threat in her own right.
— Kyle Rossi
5. Northern Kentucky at 4. Robert Morris
Staff Picks
| Team | Kyle | Eric | James | David |
| NKU | ✓ | ✓ | ||
| RMU | ✓ | ✓ |
How can Northern Kentucky win?
Northern Kentucky and Robert Morris split their regular season meetings, with the home team winning each time.
The Norse have struggled of late, but closed the regular season with a win over Oakland. Prior to that, they had lost four in a row, with their last win a home upset over Cleveland State on February 12th. For Northern Kentucky to book a trip to Indianapolis, the Norse will need a big game from not just Macey Blevins, but likely someone to help her out. In the Norse’s win over RMU, that was All-Freshman Team pick Kamora Morgan. If Northern Kentucky can get one or two other players in double figures, Northern Kentucky should fare very well.
— Eric Fischer
How can Robert Morris win?
After going 6-24 last season, ending on an 18-game losing streak, Robert Morris earned tonight’s home quarterfinal game with a surprising fourth-place finish in the conference, ahead of a crowded field. Given the scale of that turnaround in Chandler McCabe’s first season at the helm, it might be easy to think of RMU as playing with house money at this stage. Just don’t tell them that. The Colonials expect to go even further, and given that they haven’t lost to anyone outside of the Horizon League’s top three since January 8th, there’s support for that belief.
Northern Kentucky represents the most difficult obstacle for any of the favorites seeking a trip to Indianapolis, to be sure. A repeat of February 16th’s four-point RMU win over the Norse will likely require Mya Murray and a stout interior defense winning the battle with Halle Idowu and Mya Meredith, forcing NKU into being a bit one-dimensional, and playing into the hands of a team that can ugly almost any contest. The Colonials aren’t a high-scoring squad by any stretch of the imagination, but they’re arguably the most balanced group of veterans in the conference, and can get it done with Isys Grady’s slashing game, steady guard play from Noa Givon and Jada Lee, and a couple timely Katelyn Chomko threes.
— Kyle Rossi
8. Wright State at 2. Purdue Fort Wayne
Staff Picks
| Team | Kyle | Eric | James | David |
| WSU | ||||
| PFW | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
How can Wright State win?
If Purdue Fort Wayne has trouble guarding anybody in this game, it’s going to be Amaya Staton, who is the conference leader in rebounding and blocked shots. Staton collected a staggering 27 boards in the Raiders’ first-round win against Youngstown State, a number that tied the Horizon League’s all-time single-game record, while breaking the HL tournament and WSU program marks. With Staton’s help, Wright State can win the rebounding battle and put pressure on the Mastodons’ bevy of talented shooters to avoid quick one-and-done possessions.
Offensively, the Raiders are going to have to knock down their shots, just like they did on Tuesday against the Penguins. That game almost felt like a bit of a throwback to previous Kari Hoffman teams, which boasted the likes of bombers like Bryce Nixon, Alexis Hutchison, Layne Ferrell, and Emily Chapman. Wright State went 10-for-23 from three-point range against YSU, behind Rylee Sagester, Makiya Miller, Lauren Scott, and Macie Taylor, who hit two treys apiece.
— James Moon
How can Purdue Fort Wayne win?
Realistically, Purdue Fort Wayne should win this game comfortably. Despite Staton’s presence on the opposite sideline, the Mastodons have more depth underneath thanks to Jazzlyn Linbo, and Sydney Graber gives the team plenty of quality minutes too, particularly as Linbo has worked her way back from injury. That rotation will have to be at its best, given that PFW isn’t a strong offensive rebounding team, which plays into Wright State’s hands a bit.
Regardless, the Mastodons’ guard play is elite, and should be more than enough to carry the day, even if WSU is able to neutralize things down low. That group is led by Lauren Ross, who is arguably the best overall shooter in the country. Sydney Freeman is one of the top perimeter defenders in the conference, and Amellia Bromenschenkel has quietly produced another all-HL season as well. The Horizon League’s best sixth player, Jordan Reid, is almost certain to make a few eye-popping energy plays off the bench.
— James Moon
10. Oakland at 1. Green Bay
Staff Picks
| Team | Kyle | Eric | James | David |
| OU | ||||
| GB | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
How can Oakland win?
Divine intervention?
If Oakland does pull off the shocker, it won’t be an exaggeration to call it one of the biggest upsets in Horizon League history. That’s the sort of reality the Golden Grizzlies are staring down tonight, so step one might simply be blocking out the external noise – whether it’s this article, the banners in the Kress Events Center, Green Bay’s record this season, the series history, the taxing travel to Northeast Wisconsin, or the literal din from what’s always a boisterous crowd at Phoenix games.
Teams that have success against GB typically need to figure out a way to get open looks from 15 feet and beyond, then knock down those shots. There’s a catch though: the Phoenix are almost always able to lock down their opponent’s best offensive player, so those points might have to come from someone other than Maddy Skorupski. The bit of good news is that OU does have capable scorers beyond Skorupski in Macy Smith and Dani Grim, and if both get hot, the Grizzlies at least have the glimmer of a chance.
— Kyle Rossi
How can Green Bay win?
Green Bay is coming off of its 19th straight win, an epic back-and-forth barn-burner against Purdue Fort Wayne with the Horizon League regular season title on the line. It took an extra five minutes, but the Phoenix got the job done and earned the number one seed.
Don’t expect any sort of upset here. Yes, Oakland was able to pull of the upset against IU Indy, but don’t expect lightning to strike twice.
Green Bay has dominated the Golden Grizzlies this year, outscoring Oakland by a combined 144-78. Phoenix fans can pack their bags, as Green Bay seems destined for a return trip to Indianapolis. Â
— Eric Fischer
