How does each #HLMBB school win tonight?

Quarterfinals Edition

In the first round of the Horizon League Men’s Basketball tournament, the Horizon…didn’t Horizon. The results were complete chalk, and as a result tonight we’ll be watching the top eight teams in the league in action. Could all of the strongest teams advancing out of the opening round of the tournament mean that we’re about to see the chaotic Horizon League we know and love in the quarterfinals? HoriZone Roundtable writers and podcast staff are back with our picks and insight about what’s coming tonight.

As with the first round, our writers and podcast staff are here to tell you how each team could come away with a victory tonight. This time, we’ve got a bigger crew. I’m joined by writers David Cunningham (Milwaukee), Griffin Beers (Oakland), Eric Fischer (normally Green Bay, but Youngstown State — and admittedly probably Oakland — for the day), James Moon (Wright State), and Blake Schumaker (Wright State) as well as podcast hosts Bob McDonald (Cleveland State) and Matt Dudek (Oakland, and whoever’s playing your favorite team) as we take a crack at picking the league’s quarterfinals. And today we’re making our picks public.

Here’s how we think tonight is going to play out:

4-seed Youngstown State vs. 5-seed Purdue Fort Wayne

Team	Bob	Matt	John	David	James	Griffin	Blake
Youngstown State
Purdue Fort Wayne	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓

How can Youngstown State win?

Youngstown State hosts Purdue Fort Wayne in the 4-5 matchup. These two teams split their regular season matchups, with each team defending home court. The ‘Guins have won 3 of its last 5, but have been without Third Team All-Horizon League pick EJ Farmer since its game against Cleveland State on February 16th. In his absence, Nico Galette has done his thing, with Juwan Maxey and Gabe Dynes picking up some of the extra scoring efforts without Farmer. 

While Farmer may still be out against the Mastodons tonight, Youngstown State may not need him.  While he did play in their last matchup, a 92-71 win for YSU, scoring came elsewhere. With Jalen Jackson’s availability also unknown for this one, and the ‘Dons having lost 4 of its last 5, momentum seems to be on Youngstown State’s side.

– Eric Fischer

How can Purdue Fort Wayne win?

A season ago, Purdue Fort Wayne had a brutal 2 weeks with an 0-5 record that caused the team to plummet in the standings. From February 12 until the past Saturday, the Mastodons went 1-4 and fell from a potential league champion to the 5-seed three games out of first place. A bounce back game isn’t unprecedented for Jon Coffman’s team, which could lead to a pleasant surprise for Purdue Fort Wayne tonight.

Like YSU, a big factor in how tonight might go for Purdue Fort Wayne is whether the team’s leading scorer will be available. Jalen Jackson missed PFW’s 68-57 regular season-ending loss at Cleveland State, and although Jackson had a rough end to the season when he was healthy he’s enough of a presence that he could’ve swung things for the Mastodons. If Jackson is back in the lineup — and especially if EJ Farmer for Youngstown State isn’t — Purdue Fort Wayne could soon find itself two wins away from its first ever NCAA Tournament appearance.

– John Parker

Editor’s note: the clean sweep makes me feel like the Horizon’s gonna Horizon us on this one

3-seed Milwaukee vs. 6-seed Oakland

Team	Bob	Matt	John	David	James	Griffin	Blake
Milwaukee	✓	✓		✓	✓		✓
Oakland			+5.5			✓

How can Milwaukee win?

The quarterfinal rubber match between Oakland and Milwaukee will likely be another classic heavyweight fight. It will be old school, with 15 rounds, no jabbing, and one opponent trying to drag the other into deep waters. The two teams split the season series, with each winning at home. Oakland held Milwaukee to its lowest output of the season with a 62-49 win at home in January. Milwaukee repaid the favor with a clutch 71-66 home win last week that helped clinch a top-4 seed in the conference tourney.

That seed allowed the Panthers to host this matchup in their secondary home stephome, or alternative location, the legendary Klotsche Center. Will “The K” provide a home-court advantage? Yes, but it won’t have the same effect as it did in Milwaukee’s 2023 quarterfinals win over Wright State. Oakland will be ready and need to hit from three consistently to stay in this game and absorb the initial crowd-fueled runs. I believe Oakland’s Woodruff, Cole, and Christie will ake their fair share, but it won’t be enough. When the Grizzlies miss, Milwaukee’s rebounding legion of Fields, Duffy, Lovelace, and Horizon Newcomer of the Year, JaMichael Stillwell, will clean up. The Grizzlies’s frontcourt will get in foul trouble, and that late double-bonus edge will be enough for the Panthers to squeak out the slimiest of victories.

– David Cunningham

How can Oakland win?

I see this game as a 50/50 split, but there is one major key for how Oakland wins. Turnovers. Milwaukee is the nation’s leader in fast break points, and they love to run. They run by getting you to turn the ball over. In the matchup last week, the Panthers blitzed Oakland, causing 20 Golden Grizzly turnovers in a five point Panther win.

So why should this time be different? In that game, Oakland was down Jaylen Jones already, and then Nassim Mashhour fouled out in eight minutes, not to mention DQ Cole who played most of the second half with four fouls. Well Jones is back, and he was key in breaking that pressure in Oakland’s first matchup with Milwaukee. Oakland turned the ball over nine less times in that game, and cruised to a 64-49 win. If Oakland is able to control the tempo and the ball, Milwaukee will struggle to keep Oakland’s inside game in check.

– Griffin Beers

2-seed Cleveland State vs. 7-seed Northern Kentucky

Team	Bob	Matt	John	David	James	Griffin	Blake
Cleveland State	✓		✓		✓		✓
Northern Kentucky		✓		✓		✓

How can Cleveland State win?

Cleveland State had two sides this season: the Vikings that won 13 in a row and the Vikings that lost five of seven in Feburary. Still, CSU has been dominant at home, as evidenced by the win in the regular season finale against Purdue Fort Wayne. In the wins, the formula was simple: clamp opponents on defense and leverage that to pull away. In the losses, the defense couldn’t hold the line, as the offense sputtered.

The good news for the Vikings is that they’re solid at home, and Northern Kentucky was one of their victims. For them to win and advance to Indianapolis, Cleveland State will have to erase the mistakes that resulted in a Viking loss at Truist Arena. They will also have to find a way to contain Dan Gherezgher, who didn’t play in the first game but torched them in the second.

– Bob McDonald

How can Northern Kentucky win?

Why will NKU win? Why not?! This is a team that is playing their best basketball at the right time. Darrin Horn is an experienced coach who has not given up this season getting his team right. They are finally right.

They have worked all season to find who will lead this team offensively, and it’s taken almost all season to get there. Trey Robinson and Sam Vinson are getting what they need from Dan Gherezgher who has come on to be a major contributor and seemingly the missing piece of the offensive puzzle to get the Norse trending the right way.

The biggest reason why NKU wins though? Because Cleveland State was a fraudulent team all season and was exposed down the stretch. This is the kind of team Keegan Itejere is built to beat as they do not have the athleticism to match. While they may have split the season series, NKU won the second game and will put another season of Vikings basketball away in front of the green curtain that is the Wolstein Center.

There’s two things I know:

1. You should never go against a Sicilian with death on the line.

2. You should never bet against the Norse in a HL tournament game.

– Matt Dudek

1-seed Robert Morris vs. 8-seed Wright State

Team	Bob	Matt	John	David	James	Griffin	Blake
Robert Morris	✓		✓	✓	✓	✓
Wright State		✓					✓

How can Robert Morris win?

Stay the course.

With 13 wins in the team’s last 14 games, the best way for Robert Morris to advance to its first ever Horizon League Men’s Basketball Semifinal is to do exactly what it’s been doing since early January. A big part of what that means is to make sure that the coaches’ pick for Horizon League Player of the Year Alvaro Folgueiras gets going. Folgueiras has scored in double figures in each of the 13 wins and failed to do so in the team’s lone loss, ironically a 66-64 loss at the hands of tonight’s opponent Wright State.

But even if Folgueiras can’t get going, Robert Morris still has a clear path to victory. In the 2-point road loss back in February, every single RMU player who took a free throw shot under their season average from the line as the team finished 9-for-16. An average or better free throw shooting performance would’ve had RMU playing the free throw game from ahead instead of behind in the final minutes. While Wright State has done a lot of playing to its opponent’s level in the last few weeks, Robert Morris has been playing well above its opponent’s level for almost two months and should really be moving on tonight.

– John Parker

How can Wright State win?

If you had asked me at the beginning of this season if I thought the Raiders were dangerous, I would’ve said yes immediately. Wright State losing its top two seniors was a blow but so much of the core remained, including First Team Brandon Noel, that it felt hard to discount them in the slightest. I remember making a case to Matt that the team was not rebuilding in the slightest, more like picking up where they left off. Ask me in the middle of the season before I disappeared for family leave and I would’ve said the same thing – there were so many good games that the Raiders showed off in, with the Myrtle Beach Invitational being chief among them.

When I came back, Wright State couldn’t string wins together and it felt like the pieces that made up the core were scattered like a puzzle. A good homecoming game against IU Indy was immediately undone by losses to Milwaukee, the Doug Gottliebs, and worst of all, Northern Kentucky at HOME.

Alex Huibregtse could not find his shot that made him such a dangerous player for multiple games at a time. Mr. Ice-in-his-veins Andrew Welage is not seeing the time anyone was expecting after exiting the portal for his final year. Michael Imariagbe and Jack Doumbia are either the saviors of games or having bad scoring days with no in-between. Brandon Noel’s consistent shooting on the floor never felt enough as other players would get rebounds before him. And god help the squad if Keaton Norris is absent.
Now though? Wright State has pushed their offense to the max with Noel pounding the paint with Imariagbe in tandem, Huibregtse getting his groove back, Norris playing the conductor, and Doumbia being the wild card. Wright State has scored 80+ points in the past three games, and that includes a match against the team at the top of the charts in defense in Cleveland State, currently averaging 66 PPG allowed.

Their opponent, while the top of the conference and therefore nothing to be sneezed at, is a team they have dueled to the wire in one-score matches. One of those was a Wright State victory as well! Wright State is going to get an opportunity to decide the rubber match with a line that has looked the best offensively now than it has all season, and that’s going to be the difference maker that takes the 1 seed down in true Horizon League fashion. That lovely pedestal is cursed after all, don’t let Oakland’s run last year fool you.

– Blake Schumaker