Oakland’s Possible Seeds and Opponents

We’ve made it.

With one game to go for Oakland in the regular season, and one Horizon League team already being done with their regular season slate, it feels like March is rapidly approaching.

However, due to the bunched-up nature of the standings, it can get pretty confusing as to what the Golden Grizzlies’ path is to get to the later rounds of the Horizon League Tournament in Indianapolis.

That’s what this article is here for. Consider this your primer to dissecting the Horizon League standings.

The Bracket

The Horizon League made headlines with its out of the ordinary postseason format. Here it is as a reminder:

There’s a play-in between the 10 and 11 seeds, with the winner playing the one seed in the ‘first round’. Also in the first round are two vs nine, three vs eight, four vs seven and five vs six. Those games are at the better seed’s court.

From there, the worst two seeds remaining of the five winners play each other in Indianapolis. The winner of that game plays the best remaining seed in the semifinals, with the other two first round winners playing in the other semifinals. Then, the winners of the semifinals play on Tuesday, March 11th in the championship game.

The Tiebreakers

Part of the problem when figuring all of this out is that it is hard to keep track what a league uses as its tiebreakers. The Horizon League goes like this:

If two teams are tied, use head-to-head. If the head-to-head is tied, go to the top of the standings and work your way down. Whichever team has a better record against a team first wins the tiebreaker. An example would be Oakland losing a tiebreaker to Robert Morris because Robert Morris beat first place Wright State and Oakland didn’t.

If more than two teams are tied, they are ranked on their records against each other. If there is a tie within that, then the same second tiebreaker as the two team one is applied here.

Got it? Good.

What we know

We know for a fact that Oakland will play a home game in the first round, and we know that game is on Wednesday at 7pm Eastern Time. The top five seeds get a first-round home game, and we know that Oakland will be somewhere between two and four.

We can also narrow down possible opponents a bit. Wright State, Robert Morris and Green Bay have all clinched home games, eliminating them, and Cleveland State and IU Indy will duel in the play-in, with the winner taking a trip to Wright State. Detroit Mercy can drop to the seven seed with a loss [four plays seven] but a Detroit Mercy loss would mean Oakland earned win number 13, clinching a top three seed.

That leaves four possible opponents. Milwaukee, Youngstown State, Northern Kentucky and Purdue Fort Wayne.

If Oakland wins

As mentioned above, an Oakland win clinches the two or three seed. That would guarantee that one win makes the semifinal round, whereas the four seed could have to play a game before the semifinal round.

The decider of the exact seed would be predicated on Robert Morris. If Robert Morris beats Cleveland State on Saturday, RMU would clinch the two seed. If both RMU and Oakland won they would both be 13-7 and be 1-1 against each other, but RMU’s wins over Wright State would give them the nod.

An Oakland win would mean that the Golden Grizzlies would no longer be able to play Northern Kentucky or Purdue Fort Wayne as neither team can fall below the seventh seed. That leaves two possible opponents in the scenario Oakland beats Detroit Mercy:

Milwaukee and Youngstown State.

Milwaukee has concluded their regular season at 8-12, and YSU is 8-11 with a trip to Green Bay on Saturday. A Youngstown State win would give it the eight seed, but a loss would give YSU the nine and Milwaukee the eight.

Basically, it looks like this:

Oakland, Robert Morris and Youngstown State win= 3 Oakland vs 8 Youngstown State

Oakland and Robert Morris win, Youngstown State loss= 3 Oakland vs 8 Milwaukee

Oakland win, Robert Morris and Youngstown State loss= 2 Oakland vs 9 Youngstown State

If Oakland loses

All things considered, an Oakland win is the cleaner of the scenarios. A loss brings some extra games into play.

Let’s again start with Robert Morris. If RMU were to win, Oakland would drop to the four seed. Detroit Mercy and Oakland would be tied, and Detroit Mercy would carry the tiebreaker, making UDM the three and OU the four. Oakland cannot drop below four in any scenario as OU would carry the tiebreaker over Green Bay due to Oakland sweeping Milwaukee and Green Bay losing to Milwaukee [yes, Milwaukee is the highest seed Oakland and Green Bay would differ in records against in this case].

If RMU and Oakland were to both lose, Oakland would be slotted in at the three seed. Oakland would then win the tiebreaker over Detroit Mercy because Detroit Mercy went 0-2 against Robert Morris, meaning their tiebreaker record gets passed by Oakland when RMU is involved.

The results of the Purdue Fort Wayne and Northern Kentucky games matter a lot more in the event of an Oakland loss. Both teams are currently in sixth at 10-9, and Northern Kentucky holds the tiebreaker. If Northern Kentucky beats Wright State Saturday, then Oakland cannot match up with the Norse.

However, an NKU loss could mean the teams match up if Oakland drops to the four seed. If PFW beat IU Indy with an NKU loss, then Oakland and NKU would be the matchup. Oakland can only play PFW as the four seed as well, but that would require a PFW loss to IU Indy or an NKU win over Wright State.

Here it is in cleaner fashion:

Oakland, Robert Morris, Youngstown State loss= 3 Oakland vs 8 Milwaukee

Oakland and Robert Morris loss, Youngstown State win= 3 Oakland vs 8 Youngstown State

Oakland loss, Robert Morris and Northern Kentucky win or Purdue Fort Wayne loss= 4 Oakland vs 7 Purdue Fort Wayne

Oakland and Northern Kentucky loss, Purdue Fort Wayne and Robert Morris win= 4 Oakland vs 7 Northern Kentucky

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