Admittedly, we’ve had some far-fetched ideas in recent years (read: a proposed Horizon League-NEC merger) and the not-entirely far-fetched (e.g. Bellarmine, Drexel, Southern Indiana). Naturally, none of these came to fruition; not even close.
So this next idea probably isn’t going anywhere, either. Still, it’s nice the dream.
Brett McMurphy reported that the Mountain West, in the middle of a fight to stay together amid defections of multiple teams to the PAC-12, are now looking to expand eastward for football-only members. And it’s looking at two MAC teams: Northern Illinois and Toledo.
The defection two teams, which represent seven of the last 13 MAC football titles, would probably not sit all that well with the power-that-be within the conference. That would potentially mean that NIU and Toledo would cut through the awkwardness and head for the exits completely, searching for a new home. While Northern Illinois, a former conference member, might get some run, that’s not the idea one of our intrepid fans had initially.
Our initial reaction to this was, well, this.
The perception has always been that the MAC, as a whole, was better from a competitive standpoint than the Horizon League. That conventional wisdom would lead anyone to understandably recoil at the possibility of the Rockets making a move to the HL, as their fans would see that as a considerable step downward.
However, if you look at the bigger picture, it’s not a ludicrous as you’d think.
Looking at the men’s and women’s basketball teams, you’d find some interesting comparisons with Toledo and the rest of the Horizon League. The men ranked 134th in the NET, and 139th in KenPom, placing them third behind Oakland and Youngstown State. The women finished 66th in the NET, behind Green Bay and ahead of Cleveland State.
And historically, not a year goes by without multiple games between MAC and HL teams. Last year was no different, rolling Detroit Mercy in the men’s opener, while scraping by the Grizz and Wright State on the road.
It goes without saying that Toledo, like nearly all MAC schools (Sorry, UMass), is a perfect geographic fit for the Horizon League. It’s likely one of the reasons that the Rockets consistently play HL teams in the non-conference schedule.
As for major cities, as the Horizon League touts, well, Toledo is the fourth-largest city in Ohio.
There’d be some additional intrigue, as Tod Kowalczyk, who coached Green Bay before leaving for Toledo, would end up playing the Phoenix twice a year.
However, what makes a Toledo move to the Horizon League highly unlikely is the financial picture. While base salary for Kowalczyk plus compensation for marketing puts him a shade above $585,000 per year, putting him on par with the highest paid coaches in the conference, Ginny Boggess was recently hired as women’s basketball coach, which was for a reported $450,000 a year in base salary and marketing dollars, far outpacing any HL coach.
And given what the Mountain West would offer Toledo financially to move, they’d be able to consistently outspend any Horizon League school, a few of which are already under a budgetary microscope.
That said, the return on investment for the basketball teams hasn’t exactly been fruitful, particularly for the men, who have made multiple NIT appearances but haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1980.
So, while we initially laughed at the idea of Toledo moving the Horizon League, should it take football to the Mountain West, the thought isn’t that outrageous. Sure, Toledo could spend any conference school under the table, but as we’ve seen over the years, league schools are up for the challenge on the court.
