A glimpse at #HLMBB tiebreakers: 1-5

Five teams vying for a share of the league title, two for the 1-seed

Five schools enter the final week of the Horizon League Men’s Basketball regular season technically in the running for a share of the regular season crown. Two schools enter the final week of the Horizon League Men’s Basketball regular season with a shot at the 1-seed in the league tournament. But who gets it will be up to the 3 schools that aren’t in the running for the 1-seed. Is there anything more “Horizon’s gonna Horizon” than that? If there is…we’ll probably see it in the league tournament. In the meantime, I wanted to dive into what has to happen this week for each of the 5 schools with a chance at the regular season crown to bolster — or maintain — its current seed in the league tournament.

In the past, I’ve written about “who you should root for” as a fan of each school and how it pertained to tiebreakers. I couldn’t do that this season, as it seems like in a lot of cases where a team is hoping to move up a seed line the answer is a team that’s still on your school’s schedule. In several tiebreaker scenarios left to sort out this year a school needs to beat a team this week, then have that team also hold strong in the standings to bolster tiebreakers.

Here’s a look at the best and worse case scenarios for teas teams at the top of the league:

Robert Morris won its marquee matchup against Milwaukee on Sunday, and after Oakland knocked off then league-leading Cleveland State the Colonials now control their own destiny for a Horizon League title and have a clear path to the 1-seed in the Horizon League tournament. If Robert Morris wins at IU Indianapolis, it gets at least a share of the regular season crown. From there, the team needs Milwaukee to finish above Purdue Fort Wayne and then it gets the 1-seed in the league tournament over Cleveland State. Fortunately for RMU, Cleveland State still has to beat Purdue Fort Wayne for PFW to kick in as a tiebreaker, immediately devaluing the win. Sunday’s win over Milwaukee guaranteed the surging RMU a Top 2 seed in the league tournament, with 2-0 records against Milwaukee and NKU enough to avoid any difficulties with the Panthers, Purdue Fort Wayne or Youngstown State regardless of how the rest of the season plays out.

Cleveland State losing to Oakland on Sunday really complicated its path to the 1-seed. With both schools remaining on CSU’s schedule — Wright State and Purdue Fort Wayne — ahead of RMU’s opponent IU Indy, just keeping pace with the Colonials is less than guaranteed. From there, the Vikings run into the issue of needing to make the tiebreaker they’re relying on less important by beating them this week. Losing to Purdue Fort Wayne would make the tiebreaker against both the Mastodons and RMU come down to record against Milwaukee. Both PFW and Robert Morris are 2-0 so CSU would get the 3-seed, meaning losing the game and hoping that RMU drops its game against IU Indy isn’t an option either. There’s also still a possibility that CSU goes 0-2 and plays on the road in the quarterfinals of the Horizon League Tournament, though a game not long ago that ended a 21-game losing streak makes that possibility feel extremely unlikely.

Youngstown State is in a difficult spot when it comes to tiebreakers as the one team in the top half of the league that couldn’t manage a win over Milwaukee. Because of this, YSU’s best option is to win its season finale against Northern Kentucky and then have everyone who possibly can lose to get to 7 league losses so that ties can’t come into play. Cleveland State going 0-2, Purdue Fort Wayne losing to Northern Kentucky after beating CSU, and Milwaukee losing one of its remaining two would give YSU the 2-seed. One bright side for the Penguins is that a top 5 seed and a bye are locked up.

Purdue Fort Wayne actually has the most straightforward path to its best possible scenario: beat Northern Kentucky and Cleveland State, and you’re the 2-seed. The Mastodons won’t be able to catch RMU even if the Colonials lose to IU Indy, as both would have then split with Cleveland State and the tiebreaker would come down to RMU’s 2-0 record against Oakland being better than PFW’s 1-1 record against the Golden Grizzlies. PFW’s worst case scenario is also very straightforward: fail to keep pace with Milwaukee and Youngstown State, both currently even with PFW in the loss column at six. Purdue Fort Wayne is 2-0 against Milwaukee and Milwaukee is 2-0 against Youngstown State, so any tie involving PFW and Milwaukee is great for the Mastodons. PFW could get the 4-seed with a loss to Cleveland State and a tie that involves Youngstown State but not Milwaukee, as the tiebreaker would come down to the Penguins’ win over Cleveland State.

Milwaukee is currently set to host a Horizon League Quarterfinal game, but is the one school in the top 5 that isn’t even guaranteed to be there depending on how the rest of the season plays out. As mentioned in the article covering the other half of the league, Milwaukee could still fall behind Oakland by going 0-2 while the Golden Grizzlies secure a season sweep of the Panthers and go 2-0 this week. On the other hand, going 2-0 could give Milwaukee an outside shot at the 2-seed. If CSU goes 0-2 and Purdue Fort Wayne loses its other game this week to Northern Kentucky, Milwaukee could make a last-second surge. The trouble with that is that it would require that Wright State over Cleveland State upset, and Milwaukee avenging the 16-point January loss to Oakland that remains its biggest beatdown of the year even after Sunday.