#HLMBB Tournament opening round participants almost locked in
The Horizon League’s final weekend looks to have some serious drama in store, with each of the five teams jockeying for position in the Horizon League Tournament seeding while also still mathematically in the running to be throned a Horizon League champion. Four of the five also locked up their byes already, and it’d take a massive upset for the fifth not to do the same this week.
While there’s admittedly less intrigue in how the league’s bottom six teams shake out, there are still some results that aren’t too far-fetched that could shift seeding and change matchups. Let’s take a look at the teams currently slated to play in the opening round of the Horizon League tournament, and how they might secure or move up from their current seed.
While Oakland‘s win over Cleveland State is more likely to be noticed with the way it impacts the top of the standings, it also gives the Golden Grizzlies a leg up for the 6-seed and a date with Green Bay in the first round of the Horizon League Tournament. Oakland now has a game in hand over Northern Kentucky and a game against Green Bay still on the schedule, while NKU has to play at home against Youngstown State and visit Purdue Fort Wayne before the league tournament. Oakland has great odds of keeping its streak as a top 6 seed in the Horizon League Tournament alive, and still has a chance to get a first round bye currently held by Milwaukee. Oakland can help its own case on Thursday with a win at a Panther team it already beat by 16 back in January before finishing the regular season with the Green Bay game. With two wins the Golden Grizzlies would be relying on rival Detroit Mercy to also knock off Milwaukee on the last week of the season, leading to OU’s 2-0 record against MIlwaukee breaking the tie for the 5-seed.
Northern Kentucky could still steal the 6-seed if the last weekend of the season doesn’t go the way that Oakland wants, but the Golden Grizzlies beating Cleveland State on Sunday made that a lot more complicated. Until that point, NKU’s own win over Cleveland State looked to be the tiebreaker in a head-to-head matchup with Oakland after the two schools split in the regular season. Now, NKU needs to beat Purdue Fort Wayne, to have the Mastodons still stay ahead of Milwaukee in the standings for tiebreaker purposes, and to make up Oakland’s one-game lead over the Norse when OU still gets to play Green Bay. The more I type through this scenario, the more I feel like telling you that NKU is probably going to be the 7-seed in the Horizon League Men’s Basketball Tournament.
Wright State is absolutely kicking itself over the Green Bay loss. With a win over the Phoenix, WSU would be one game back of Northern Kentucky in the win column with a winnable game against IU Indy still to play. With Wright State and NKU splitting their season series against each other, the race for the Horizon League crown would determine seeding. Thanks to Sunday, that tiebreaker currently gives WSU the edge thanks to its win over current 1-seed Robert Morris. Because of the Green Bay loss, Wright State would need to beat both IU Indy and Cleveland State while also having NKU drop games against league contenders Youngstown State and Purdue Fort Wayne.
IU Indianapolis has the upper hand on Detroit Mercy for the 9-seed thanks to the Jaguars’ season sweep of the Titans and its one-game lead in the standings with 2 games to play. IU Indy will clinch the 9-seed next week with a win against Robert Morris or Wright State, or with a Detroit Mercy loss to Green Bay or Milwaukee. Like Wright State, IU Indy has an outside shot at jumping up in the standings but it’d require a big upset. In the Jaguars’ case, that’d involve a win over a Robert Morris team that’s a game away from clinching a share of the Horizon League crown before beating the very Wright State team that it’s chasing for the 8-seed.
Green Bay is already locked into the 11-seed at the Horizon League Tournament, but the Phoenix might still have a chance to stir the pot this year. Rumors of Anthony Roy’s return have been going on for weeks. If it finally happens in the final week of the regular season — just in time to get a couple tune-up games in for the league tournament — the Phoenix could pose a serious problem for their 6-seed opponent. While the Phoenix weren’t a good team during their 2-9 start with Roy on the court, they were good enough that the last 17 games without him haven’t dragged the team to the absolute bottom of Division I despite the Phoenix looking every bit as putrid as some of the recent terrible Horizon League teams in that stretch. During that stretch Green Bay also added Yonatan Levy, though he’s struggled with injuries as well. A full-strength Green Bay team with a game or two to shake off some cobwebs could be a frustrating reward for whoever clinches the 6-seed in the league tournament.
