After a two week break, the Horizon League is back on national TV on a Friday night, and as a result we’re back with the #HLMBB Weekend Tip(sy)-off. Last time we were in action, Robert Morris held its own in a nine point loss to Wright State despite star A.J. Bramah being out of the action.
This week, the national audience gets its first look at Antoine Davis and Detroit Mercy in Horizon League play, both of whom have been surging since the end of a COVID-19 related pause.
For the last time this regular season, let’s jump into the game!
The Rules:
Take one drink if Jordan Bernfield or David Padgett mentions John Calipari
Calipari’s son Brad is a reserve guard for Detroit Mercy. A season ago he averaged over six points and 20 minutes per game, though this year he hasn’t had the same type of role.
Take one drink if Bernfield or Padgett mentions Derrick Rose.
Rose’s nephew Dwayne Rose Jr. plays for the Titans as well. Rose missed last Saturday’s game, and it’s currently unknown if he’ll be in action. So we’re going to try and make it really easy for Bernfield and Padgett to get the game going today…
(Double) Bonus: take two drinks if Bernfield or Padgett mentions Dick Vitale.
Vitale — the former Detroit Mercy coach — gave Titans’ guard Antoine Davis a shoutout on Twitter following a 30-point performance during the first of Davis’ back-to-back Horizon League Player of the Week award winning weekends.
Finish your drink if the announcers mention HoriZone Roundtable.
This is likely the last time we get Bernfield and Padgett this year, so screw it! I’m pretty sure it’s not allowed, but why not shoot for the stars?
Take one drink for every shot Al Eichelberger makes.
The 2020 All-League forward has been slowed by injuries this season. He’s averaging 5.2 points per game after averaging 14.5 per game as a junior. He did make six baskets against Green Bay less than two weeks ago.
Take one drink for every Bul Kuol assist.
Kuol averages a little under two assists per game, but this one could be a gamble like the Eichelberger rule. He’s been held without an assist three times this season, while he’s had four or more on four occasions.
Take one drink every time Cleveland State subs in a bench player for the first time.
It’s STILL a good rule. We’re riding with it for one more game.
Take three drinks if Cleveland State’s lead decreases by 10 points.
The Vikings have had a knack for taking large leads and coughing up most if not all of the point differential thanks to long cold streaks from the field.
Open a new drink and finish it if Detroit Mercy wins.
One day, the upset rule will pay off half as well as it did during CSU-WSU.
Building a successful college basketball program in 2021 starts and ends with recruiting. While player development is also crucial, finding the right people to represent your program on and off the floor is a topic that is constantly on the minds of coaches. While many coaches look to take advantage of personal relationships when on the recruiting trail, Cleveland State head coach Dennis Gates has gone all around the globe to find players for his program. Despite Gates’ travel, a special group of Vikings are native Clevelanders themselves.
The Vikings have seventeen players on their roster this season. Out of those seventeen, five were born and raised in Cleveland, Ohio. Demetrius “Meechie” Terry, Yahel Hill, Jayson Woodrich, Jeremy Sanchez, and Ben Sternberg all grew up just miles from Cleveland State’s campus.
When asked about his group of local players, Gates stated, “When you look at our roster, they’re the spirit and heart of our team. I think they have that mentality that will allow the tradition of the sports fan in Cleveland to appreciate how they play
“I just think those guys come from that cloth that Cleveland speaks about.,” Gates added. “We have the Cleveland Browns, we have the Cleveland Indians, we have the Cleveland Cavaliers, we’re in that same footprint less then a couple miles away from each other and that’s the mentality we have to have…I think our guys put on that jersey and they’re prepared to protect it…Cleveland State University is dear to their hearts and they play that way.”
While each of the Cleveland natives has a different role on the team, newcomers Hill and Woodrich have contributed on both ends of the floor this year in exciting fashion. Terry has been called on at times this year for defensive work against the opposing team’s leading scorer. Terry, Hill, and Woodrich are part of the explosive CSU bench, that can oftentimes be seen chanting and creating energy for the players on the floor during the game. The bench’s culture is set by Sanchez and Sternberg, the captains of that unit.
This newfound interest in bringing in local players was something that was missing during the Dennis Felton era at CSU. Felton opted to go for players from the southern part of the United States, as that was the area he knew the best. You have to go back to the 2015 squad under Gary Waters that featured local products such as Trey Lewis, Anton Grady, Demonte Flannigan, and Derrick Sloan as the last time that Cleveland State had this many Cleveland natives on their roster. That squad did not have the chemistry that this particular Cleveland State team has, as Gates has cultivated a program that not only wins on the floor, but off of it as well.
While recruiting players that are natives of the city the program is in is not an absolute necessity, it helps integrate a coach into an area that he might have not been familiar with before accepting the job. While Gates and recruiting coordinator Dru Joyce III have traveled around the world in hopes of finding talent, some of their most integral pieces come from their own backyard.
Detroit Mercy has won seven of its last eight games, and their record sits at 8-8 and 7-5 in the conference. With four conference games left until the horizon league tournament, the Titans are surging right now.
They are powered by Antoine Davis, who is shooting better than 50% from three in his last eight games. He has also gone from lost to a potential Horizon League first-team candidate and a dark horse for Player of the Year.
Bul Kuol has also been on a tear. If he’s not scoring over 15 points a night, he’s hitting clutch shots that keep Detroit in the game and providing energy and encouragement to his teammates.
Matt Johnson has also provided a secondary scoring option. When he is hot, he requires at least one man to play on him, allowing other Titans to get the ball in open space.
Dwayne Rose, Jr. has shown what he can do over the last few weeks getting more minutes and points than he has ever gotten as a Titan. It is worth noting that his knee has been acting up, and that’s why we did not see a lot of him this weekend.
Noah Waterman has been a tad streaky, but when he’s having a good night, it’s an excellent outing for him. I was mocked when I said he could be like Nick Minnerath was for us back in 2010-13, I think he could be better. Waterman has to stop committing frustration fouls and calm down when shooting; if he can do that and bulk up, he is probably a Player of the Year candidate in two years.
Playing Antoine Davis off the ball has allowed the Titans to do more things creatively on the offensive end with two players cutting at a time. Despite not being a super tall team and not using the seven-footer Buay Koka as a rotation player, Chris Brandon, Marquell Fraser, Waterman, and Kuol have been able to use their length to keep up with bigger teams in rebounding.
This weekend, Detroit travels to Cleveland State to face the best team in the league. CSU has no star player; they play a team game and have only two players averaging over 10 points per game, led by Torrey Patton and D’Moi Hodge.
Patton is 6-5 leads the team in scoring 12.6 points per contest, and shooting 30% from three. Hodge, who is 6-4, was a juco standout last year; he’s been good for 11.1 points per game but has the ability to go off, dropping 46 on Purdue Fort Wayne earlier in the year. Even though he has only scored 20 points or more twice this season he can’t be overlooked.
Craig Beaudion is the third guard to this four-out, one-in monster Cleveland State runs and is their three-point guy for them. Deante Johnson is 6-9 and from Detroit, attending Detroit Edison. He is the anchor/flex in the four-out, one-in system. He does not shoot threes but expect him to be a force in the paint and in the midrange area. Tre Gomillion is the final starter for the Vikes; he’s not great from outside but is a good shot from midrange.
Cleveland State tends to go four to five deep on the bench, unlike the Titan bench; these are guys who spell the starters, no one who is going to break out and really hurt Detroit on paper. That being said, the Vikings play such a strong team game that any can hurt the Titans. CSU is a team with many players that cause matchup issues, but Detroit Mercy is longer and bigger. If the Titan can shoot the three well and rebound, they will give CSU trouble.
It will be an exciting weekend, and I am excited to see what the Titans can do and if they can keep the streak going. Point of note: the game Friday is on ESPNU at 9pm If you’re a cord cutter like me, it may be wise to check to see if you can get that channel.
The time has come, Norse fans! You’re back in the women’s basketball power rankings and…probably wishing you could’ve been back in last week instead. While NKU technically wasn’t eligible for the rankings last week due to playing less than half of league games, the Norse would’ve had an incredible argument for first place. That went away quickly with another high-profile matchup.
If the fact that there’s a number in every box of that last column on the chart didn’t give it away, I’ll go ahead and say it: this week in women’s basketball sent the power rankings into more chaos than the previous 10 weeks combined. Much of that was artificial due to NKU’s return, but a lot was because we’ve started to get the high-profile matchups after weeks of top teams stacking up wins against the middle and bottom of the league.
With NKU back in the rankings, every team that’s still playing is ranked this week.
Team
Rank
LW
Change
Wright State Raiders
1
4
+3
Green Bay Phoenix
2
3
+1
IUPUI Jaguars
3
2
-1
Northern Kentucky Norse
4
N/A
N/A
Milwaukee Panthers
5
1
-4
Cleveland State Vikings
6
5
-1
Oakland Golden Grizzlies
7
6
-1
Youngstown State Penguins
8
7
-1
Robert Morris Colonials
9
8
-1
UIC Flames
10
9
-1
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
11
10
-1
The biggest beneficiary of a week of chaos was Wright State, which has sole possession of first place after sweeping Milwaukee this weekend. The Raiders absolutely dominated both games in the weekend sweep and are now 2-0 against the rest of the top of the league. I’m still skeptical about that record, but you can’t deny the team that’s played a full slate of games and is alone in first has been elite. The last two weekends will put any questions about their schedule to rest when the Raiders play Northern Kentucky and Green Bay.
Green Bay got a marquee opponent and took advantage to leap into second place in this week’s rankings. The Phoenix swept Northern Kentucky and have now made it through the last two weeks 3-1 against the Norse and IUPUI. While we can’t overlook the Cleveland State loss, pulling off a sweep against a team that otherwise would’ve likely been first in these rankings is enough for a jump to second place.
IUPUI was punished this week because the team’s schedule didn’t give it an opportunity at a statement weekend like Green Bay got. The Jaguars came away with a pair of wins over UIC by double digits…because of course they did. IUPUI now prepares for its final scheduled weekend of the season against Youngstown State. With Detroit Mercy scheduled for Week 13, it looks like the Jaguars will only get to play that weekend if another team has a COVID-19 issue arise.
Northern Kentucky‘s ranking is likely going to be the most volatile of the top teams in the league for the last couple weeks of the season given how few games the Norse have played and that the remaining games on the schedule are against first place Wright State and an Oakland team that’s currently positioned for a first round bye in the Horizon League tournament.
With four straight losses, Milwaukee now finds itself at the bottom of the five teams that have established themselves as the class of the Horizon League. Despite the current Power Ranking standing, Milwaukee should actually be in a pretty good position to win the regular season title. While Oakland is no pushover and currently sits in fourth place in the standings the league released, OU and UIC present a much easier finish to league play than Wright State’s opponents Northern Kentucky and Green Bay.
With a losing record in league play, Cleveland State’s spot in the rankings could’ve been in play if the schedule broke down differently. The Vikings were slated to play Detroit Mercy this weekend, but had to swap the games out for a non-league matchup with Mercyhurst. Fortunately for CSU, Youngstown State and Oakland couldn’t make up much ground against winless Purdue Fort Wayne and ninth place Robert Morris.
My ranking of Oakland should make it clear that I’m not a fan of the formula the league is using to determine seeding for the Horizon League Tournament. The Golden Grizzlies are in fourth place in the league standings, seemingly mostly because the team has played all of its games. OU is still just a week removed from being swept by Cleveland State, so it’s going to take a marquee win or CSU losing for those rankings to switch.
Youngstown State completed a sweep this weekend, but as previously stated it was against a Purdue Fort Wayne team that’s 0-16 in league play and 0-18 overall. Part of Youngstown State’s problem is that it hasn’t had a chance to play the top teams in the league since starting its season off of a COVID-19 pause and being swept by Wright State. This weekend’s games against IUPUI could present a huge opportunity for the Penguins.
As has become the norm for the league’s bottom teams, Robert Morris was swept this weekend. They keep their spot because the two teams below them were also swept and because the Colonials’ two wins over Wright State suddenly look absolutely amazing.
Similar to RMU, UIC seems pretty well locked-in to its ranking one spot up from the bottom of the league. The Flames are holding this spot thanks to a win in December as well as some more competitive losses than last-place Purdue Fort Wayne. This Saturday UIC kept within 10 points of IUPUI, which spent the first half of league play obliterating its opponents.
Purdue Fort Wayne is still winless and has one single-digit loss this season. The Mastodons play Cleveland State and Robert Morris to close out the season, so there’s probably a better chance they’ll win than UIC which still has to play Milwaukee and Green Bay. Nonetheless, there’s little to suggest PFW will be able to get a win this year with no chances to play UIC or Detroit Mercy.
The head coach of Purdue Fort Wayne, Jon Coffman, has more wins than any other coach in program history in their Division I era. In his seventh season with the Mastodons, this season presented numerous challenges. They transitioned to the Horizon League from the Summit League during a global pandemic, where practice facilities and gyms were closed for much of the summer.
All of these obstacles have been too much to overcome for the Mastodons, as they have now dropped six games in a row by an average margin of 15.3 points per game. They dropped both games against Detroit Mercy over the weekend, with an 82-72 loss on Friday, followed by a brutal 83-56 loss on Saturday.
There are four games left on the regular season schedule, and Purdue Fort Wayne playing with house money. They didn’t have lofty expectations in their first season in the conference, but they can use this season as fuel going forward as they are getting used to the grind of Horizon League play.
There is no doubt that Jarred Godfrey and Jalon Pipkins can score with anyone in the conference, and they will have nothing to lose in these final four games and the conference tournament. They have the ability to wreck someone else’s season, and continue to show why they belong in the Horizon League.
The Mastodons can shoot three-pointers with any team in college basketball, but their defensive issues, turnovers and inability to get to the free throw line will continue to haunt this team. I sound like a broken record talking about their issues, but after only attempting 13 free throws between two games, it has to be mentioned.
Purdue Fort Wayne likes to play fast and shoot the deep ball with no regrets, so that is ultimately why they struggle with turnovers and getting to the free throw line. This style can lead to an upset on any given night if they can string together some stops and connect on almost half of their threes.
The Mastodons will stay on the road as they travel to Youngstown State and look to end their losing streak this weekend. Youngstown State presents a difficult challenge as they like to attack the rim, and defending the rim is a weakness for Purdue Fort Wayne. A win for the Mastodons will be tough to come by, but if they put together a complete performance, they can certainly do just that.
Don’t consider it contradictory, think of it as a second opinion. Here are Norse Report’s Power Rankings.
Our formula for HLPOY has been tweaked this week to account for an anomaly in how it was scoring certain bench players, who are unlikely to win the award based on their lack of playing time. We’ve reformulated our metric to account for this and have a new top 5 list.
Written by Chris Hart; Edited by Kyle Craven
Norse Report’s Power Rankings
Team
Record (Conference)
Kenpom Rank
Wright State
15-4 (13-3)
53
Cleveland State
14-5 (14-2)
156
Northern Kentucky
11-8 (9-5)
208
Detroit
8-8 (7-5)
166
Oakland
8-15 (8-8)
214
Milwaukee
7-8 (6-7)
249
UIC
8-9 (5-7)
243
Youngstown State
10-10 (6-10)
239
Green Bay
6-14 (6-10)
252
IUPUI
5-8 (4-8)
289
Purdue Fort Wayne
6-11 (5-11)
290
Robert Morris
3-11 (2-9)
286
Wright State might still be second in the standings, and clearly they are beatable, but it’s impossible to ignore the sheer dominance they’ve displayed in their wins.
Consistency in the middle? (FINALLY)
While the top of the league continues to be a two-horse race, the middle of the league finally began to separate into distinct groups. A trio of teams have emerged as a clear second tier in NKU, Detroit and Oakland. While each team has their flaws, they all seem poised to finish with a winning conference record and could be dangerous in the conference tournament. The rest of the league is sort of a hodgepodge of mediocrity with the exception of Robert Morris who is likely to finish in last place. It will be very interesting to watch the final two weeks of the season play out, especially since there are 5 teams still mathematically in the running for a top 4 seed. (Remember the top 4 seeds get an automatic 1st round bye and host the winners of the 5-12 games).
Biggest Riser: Detroit
The Titans continue their ascent in the standings and have now won 5 straight games. Antoine Davis continues to shoot it very well from beyond the arc as he shot an impressive 12 for 19 over the weekend. He has continued to get steady support from the rest of the team as well. Bul Kuol, Matt Johnson and Marquel Fraser have all been key contributors this season. As I said last week, this is the deepest team that Antoine Davis has had so far in his career. It would not be a surprise to see them make a serious run in the league tournament this year.
Biggest Faller: Oakland
They had a shot to make a statement against Cleveland State this weekend and they failed. While both games were close (8- and 2-point losses respectively), they were unable to seal the deal. This is a team that is led by an incredible point guard in Jalen Moore, but the other pieces are not quite there to be a consistently successful team. While they dropped from 3rd to 5th in our rankings, they are a good enough team for that to be their floor. I really do not foresee them moving out of the #5 spot for the rest of the year in our rankings.
HL POY Rankings
Player
Class
Team
1. Loudon Love
Senior
Wright State
2. Jalen Moore
Junior
Oakland
3. Trevon Faulkner
Junior
Northern Kentucky
4. Tanner Holden
Sophomore
Wright State
5. AJ Bramah
Senior
Robert Morris
Honorable Mention
Naz Bohannon-Senior-Youngstown State
Antoine Davis-Junior-Detroit
Amari Davis-Junior-Green Bay
Grant Basile-Sophomore-Wright State
Marcus Burk-Senior-IUPUI
Thoughts on rankings
Over the past few weeks we started to notice a flaw in our POY metric. While it was clearly identifying the best players, it was overlooking the fact that bench players are unlikely to win the POY award. Since the entire point of this metric was not to identify the best players but to predict who would win the POY award I decided to go in and adjust for that. In doing so it changed our Top 5 list a bit. As you can see Grant Basile dropped from the Top 5 into the Honorable Mention. While he is putting up tremendous numbers, he has not been a consistent starter and with Loudon Love on the same team he is unlikely to win the award. Loudon Love remains the favorite for the award, but Jalen Moore and Trevon Faulkner have emerged as the leading alternatives for the moment. Antoine Davis also continues to creep up in the rankings but is held back by his early season struggles. This is a pretty tight race that is going to go down to the wire.
Final Thoughts
Cleveland State continues to win close games and maintain a one game lead in the standings. This weekend will present a tough test for them as they take on a hot shooting Detroit team that features one of the best players in the league. The implications of the series between those two teams could be pivotal in the final regular season standings. It is crazy to think that we are entering the final stretch of the season and that each of these games have major implications for seeding in the league tournament. Buckle up because there is bound to be some craziness ahead!
For the second week in a row, the Horizon League men’s basketball slate resulted in five sweeps out of six matchups. While there was a good deal of movement in this week’s rankings, they were much more stable than last week following the seemingly straightforward results. While two teams dropped multiple spots, nobody moved up more than one.
Team
Rank
LW
Change
Wright State Raiders
1
1
–
Cleveland State Vikings
2
2
–
Detroit Mercy Titans
3
4
+1
Northern Kentucky Norse
4
5
+1
Oakland Golden Grizzlies
5
3
-2
Milwaukee Panthers
6
6
–
UIC Flames
7
7
–
Green Bay Phoenix
8
8
–
Youngstown State Penguins
9
10
+1
IUPUI Jaguars
10
11
+1
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
11
9
-2
Robert Morris Colonials
12
12
–
Wright State put up another dominant weekend to remain first in the rankings. After three straight weeks of weekend splits, the Raiders have had three straight weekends with two convincing wins. This weekend, WSU added 20 and 25-point wins. Despite being second in the standings, the Raiders are clearly playing like the best team in the league.
Cleveland State remained first in the standings, but went through some struggles along the way. It’s not nearly enough to take the Vikings out of the top two, particularly coming against a top five opponent in Oakland. Nonetheless, it widens the gap between Wright State and CSU.
Detroit Mercy continued to creep up the rankings since returning from a COVID-19 related pause during the first two weeks of the new year. The Titans are 7-1 in 2021, with the lone loss coming to Oakland. The team will have a chance to prove the results aren’t just because all of its opponents but Oakland have been ranked eighth or lower this weekend against Cleveland State, with Friday’s game being nationally televised on ESPNU.
Northern Kentucky continued a win streak of its own over the weekend, easily handling Milwaukee twice to move to 9-5 in the Horizon League. The Norse have a solid argument against Detroit Mercy in that two of their three opponents during the current 6-game streak are higher in the rankings than anyone the Titans have played except for the Oakland team that beat them.
Oakland was on the receiving end of a sweep this weekend, but that’s how just about everyone in the middle of the league has fared against Cleveland State. With all three of the teams left to be ranked that won this week playing other teams well behind OU in the standings, we’ll give the Golden Grizzlies the benefit of the doubt for now.
Like Oakland, Milwaukee was swept over the weekend but avoids much of a fall because the week’s remaining winners were near the bottom of the league. With that said, the Panthers will likely need to come up with another big upset to keep from dropping into the lower tiers of the rankings.
UIC is the final school that avoided a drastic fall thanks to having some cushion between them and the bottom of the league. The Flames were easily handled twice by Wright State. It’s not exactly the worst result, but a bit surprising given how much success the team has had lately and with UIC’s front court players having a lot of success against WSU in recent years.
Green Bay might’ve had a shot to elevate itself into the middle of the pack if not for Friday’s loss to IUPUI. If not for that loss, the Phoenix would have only lost on the road to second ranked Cleveland State and third ranked Detroit Mercy in the last month. The loss to a bottom-tier opponent makes it tough to elevate the Phoenix right now.
Youngstown State pulled off a sweep against Robert Morris and suddenly seems like it could reach .500 in this massively disappointing season. With that said, it’s far from a guarantee: the Penguins needed overtime in both of this weekend’s games and looked far from sharp in a 10-point win against Rochester University of the NAIA.
IUPUI was the other half of the weekend’s lone split. The Jaguars have officially surpassed last year’s Horizon League win total in just 12 games. With each of IUPUI’s remaining series being against teams in the bottom half of the league, it’s not out of the question that our pick to finish in last place might wind up in the middle of the pack instead.
Just a few weeks ago, Purdue Fort Wayne was in the middle of the Horizon League at 5-5 with a surprise series against Cleveland State and a scheduled series against Northern Kentucky in its rearview. With PFW being the team that was lucky enough to avoid Wright State, it looked like the Mastodons might build up some momentum heading into the originally scheduled regular season finale against the Vikings. It hasn’t played out that way at all. The Mastodons have been swept by three teams that looked to be decidedly below them in the ranking sat the time and now that series against CSU looks like it’ll be the end of a brutal second half of PFW’s first Horizon League season.
As frustrating as recent results have been for PFW, Robert Morris has to be more frustrated than anyone about this Horizon League season. With multiple stoppages during the season, it was tough for the team to find flow. This pick probably won’t get much pushback, but RMU is likely better than its clearcut last place standing indicates. An 0-4 record in overtime games can be an indicator of an inability to finish down the stretch, but the it also means that four plays going differently could’ve turned RMU from the last place team in the standings into one of just five teams with a winning Horizon League record.
You know about Trevon Faulkner. You’ve been introduced this year to Marques Warrick. But one Norse men’s basketball player is quietly putting together one of the best seasons in entire league. Here’s your yearly reminder that Adrian Nelson is good at basketball.
It does sound kind of crazy, calling Adrian Nelson, the 6’7″ Center (by necessity) for the Northern Kentucky Norse one of the 15 best players in the league. Many around the league sleep on the Norse big man. They look at the roster card, see a guy standing 6’7″ anchoring the defense and immediately write the Norse off as “undersized.” And sure, on paper, we might be. Against the “biggest” team in the league, Wright State, we are. Loudon Love proved to be just too much last year – not just for Nelson, but for every big man the Norse threw out there. But as easy as it is to write Nelson off, he continues to give everyone a reason to believe.
Scoring Efficiency
Nelson has been one of the most efficient players in league play the entire season. This not only bears out in the stats and advanced analytics but in the tape, too.
Screen & Roll Mastery
The Norse have used Nelson quite a bit in screen and roll situations, and while Nelson does not have a “pop” option in his bag, he does very well rolling from the top of the key down the lane. He gets a good percentage of his points in the pick and roll game, and using him in that way is so helpful for the Norse because they have two guards in Trevon Faulkner and Marques Warrick that are great at attacking the basket and setting those screens 3-5 feet above the 3-point line helps them get the space they need to truly dominate. And if they get stopped, Nelson is there on the roll. This also bears itself out in the numbers.
photo by: NKU Norse
Scoring Efficiently > Scoring in volume
Nelson is shooting an astounding 69.2% from the field, which is good enough for #2 in conference (Dylan Carl, the 6’11” Center for Purdue-Fort Wayne is averaging 73.4% on his 2pt field goals). Nelson is also averaging what some would think is an underwhelming 8.1 points per game, but it’s important to understand two things when looking at these numbers:
The first thing to understand is that he has increased his Conference points per game average from 3.1 to 5.4 to now 8.1 in his three seasons at Northern. This steady and consistent growth demonstrates a trajectory that is bound to end up in double figures by next season. Something to keep in mind here is that Adrian is averaging 8.1 points per game on less than 5 field goal attempts per game in conference play. That type of efficiency is good for a 7-footer, but for a guy who is 6’7″ and doesn’t shoot 3-pointers, it’s astounding.
The most important thing to understand is that Adrian just is not a volume shooter. The offense does not run through him, and likely never will. But that shouldn’t take him out of the running for a Second or Third team “All League” consideration. When Nelson gets his opportunities, many of which he creates for himself via his tenacity on the offensive glass, he gets it done at rates that equate to the top players in the league (Adrian would be in/around the top-10 in the country but does not qualify for the leaderboard).
photo by: NKY Tribune
Still not convinced? Okay.. I continue
Glass Eater
Digging further into the stats will reveal what Norse fans pretty much have always known. Adrian Nelson is hungry. And the only thing that feeds his appetite is EATING BOARDS.
Total Rebounding Numbers
Just how hungry is he? Well, Adrian currently ranks 4th and 2nd in TOTAL offensive and defensive rebounds, respectively. But that doesn’t really do Nelson justice because the Norse have only played 19 games, whereas teams like Oakland have played 23 total games. A better indicator of Nelson’s rebounding prowess will be by looking at his per game numbers.
photo by: Cincinnati Enquirer
Rebounds Per Game
When you look at total rebounds per game, Nelson ranks 4th. This is a good mark, too but still perhaps not good enough to make the case that he’s really THAT good on the glass. But wait, there’s an advanced metric that really isn’t all that tough to understand, which better explains a player’s rebounding abilities. This is called “rebounding percentage”, in other words, it calculates what percentage of the teams rebounds a specific player accounted for while they were on the court.
Rebound Percentage
This stat is the true measure of a good rebounder because it shows exactly how much of an impact they were able to have on the court, while they were on the court, despite who was on the court with them. In the advanced metrics of rebounding percentage, Nelson is 2nd in the league in Offensive Rebound %, 2nd in Defensive rebounding %, and 1st in TOTAL rebounding %. All of this combined is enough for me to say that Adrian Nelson is at least a top 3-4 big in the league, making him worthy of a top 15 spot in conference, one of the 3 “All League” teams. Right? I guess we can take a look…
Compare & Contrast…
Getting into the business of projections is where things can get a little complicated. We believe in fairness around here, so In order to project Nelson into a “top 15” situation, we first have to remove the players we know are already going to be on a 1st, 2nd or 3rd team and work from the rest. Here’s are the players that our metric predicts as our all-Horizon League “top 10” as of this week. I’ve removed their specific ranking so we don’t give anything away too early – and added them to the team that we project they will make.
FIRST TEAM:
G – Jalen Moore // Oakland
G – Trevon Faulkner // Northern Kentucky
G – Tanner Holden // Wright State
F – AJ Bramah // Robert Morris
C – Loudon Love // Wright State
SECOND TEAM:
G – Antoine Davis // Detroit Mercy
G – Amari Davis // Green Bay
G – Marcus Burke // IUPUI
F – Naz Bohannon // Youngstown State
C – Grant Basile // Wright State
So our metric output for this week has Adrian Nelson outside of the top 10, which is understandable – but what about 3rd team? Is there a chance for him to make it? That really depends on what voters deem important. Historically, the makeup of an “All Horizon League” team is 2-3 guards, 1-2 forwards and [maybe] a Center if one is good enough. I know, that’s not really helpful, but these “All” teams are pretty loosely defined. The Horizon League is a very guard heavy league, so for the purposes of a 3rd team list, we’re going to learn more on the side of 3 guards, 2 bigs (either 2 forwards or 1 forward and 1 center). With that line of thinking, we believe that Adrian will have to be either the best or second best Forward (or Center) left off of the 1st or 2nd team. After assessing all of the main statistics that are important for “bigs”, it seems to me that Adrian’s compeition is with two other players: Elijah Goss of IUPUI and Daniel Oladapo of Oakland, and it could really go in any direction. Here is are how their stats break out, in conference play:
NAME/STATs (per game)
Elijah Goss
Daniel Oladapo
Adrian Nelson
Points
9.3
13.6
8.1
Rebounds
10.3
9.7
8.5
Assists
0.6
1.9
0.7
Blocks
0.4
0.3
0.6
Steals
0.7
1.3
0.8
Field Goal %
47.10%
59.50%
74.60%
Total rebound %*
18
15.30%
18.60%
Total Win Shares**
0.6
1.7
1.6
* = total rebound percentage, an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor. ** = win shares, an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player due to his offense and defense.
Just looking at some of these key stats. Daniel Oladapo leads in points, assists and steal per game. He comes in second in rebounds per game, FG% and total win shares. He’s last in blocks and total rebound percentage. Elijah Goss is first in rebounds per game and that’s it. He comes in second in points and blocks per game, along with total rebound percentage. He’s last in assists and steals per game, field goal percentage and total win shares. Finally, there’s Adrian Nelson, who leads the three in blocks per game, field goal percentage, and total rebound percentage. He comes in second in assists per game, steals per game, and total win shares, while coming in last in points and rebounds per game.
Digging deeper into the stats
What do these stats mean, though? Well, let’s be honest about something. “Per game stats” do play into POY rankings and 1st/2nd/3rd team placement, but they really do not reflect how good or effective a player really is. Should Adrian Nelson be punished because he plays less minutes than these two? He leads the entire league in rebound percentage, so if you give Adrian 3-4 more minutes per game, he likely beats these two in rebounds per game, right? On the other hand, why should Adrian and Daniel get a huge boost because they play for a better team? Win shares lean heavily towards Adrian and Daniel, and kill Goss because IUPUI just doesn’t win games. Thus, the total WS stat shouldn’t play too much into this, right?
I guess the point I am making here is that there’s no real distinction between the three players. Do you give it to the overall best producer based on the superficial “per game” tallies they’ve accumulated? Then I guess you rule out Adrian Nelson. Do you dig a little deeper into some of the more advanced analytics and weight players’ efficiency? Then you have to give Nelson the nod. Do you factor in wins and if the player plays for a good team? Nelson and Oladapo are your guys. Or do you look into seniority, in which Goss is a senior and was on an “All League” team last year.
The point of this entire article is that Adrian Nelson has lived up to our preseason expectations and had a breakout year, but through no fault of his own has almost gone unnoticed due to the awesome performances of late by his teammates. This suits him though. He’s not the most flashy. He’s not the most talkative. He’s not the most active on social media. He’s just there. He’s always there.
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Wright State and Cleveland State maintained pace at the top of the Horizon League, but now it’s starting to look like Northern Kentucky is emerging as a third team destined for a first round bye in the league tournament. While the Norse still have a pair of games against Wright State, the team is currently riding a six-game win streak and sits four games above .500.
Once again, there were five sweeps out of six series this weekend.
Here’s a look at how that changed the league’s outlook:
Standings
With three of the teams that entered the weekend at or above .500 in league play being swept, there were pretty significant changes in this week’s standings. Northern Kentucky and Detroit Mercy continued to surge, with the Norse now seemingly in a great position for a first round bye. The Titans figure to battle with in-state rival Oakland for the fourth bye, with Milwaukee and UIC still in the mix. Youngstown State started a climb out of the bottom of the standings that could still conceivably wind up with the Penguins at .500 in league play.
School
Record
Cleveland State
14-2
Wright State
13-3
Northern Kentucky
9-5
Detroit Mercy
7-5
Oakland
8-8
Milwaukee
6-7
UIC
5-7
Green Bay
6-10
Youngstown State
6-10
IUPUI
4-8
Purdue Fort Wayne
5-11
Robert Morris
2-7
Weekly Awards
Preseason Horizon League Player of the Year Loudon Love had arguably his best weekend since Wright State took on Detroit Mercy in mid-December. Love averaged 20.5 points and 11 rebonds per game in the two contests against UIC. While it’s difficult to argue with awarding Horizon League Player of the Year to a defending POTY that’s averaging over 15 points and 10 rebounds per game, Wright State has three players putting up consistent star performances. If Love keeps weekends like this one up, those arguments are probably over.
Marques Warrick should cruise to another Horizon League Freshman of the Week award after averaging 18.5 points and 4.5 assists per game against Milwaukee this weekend. Warrick is averaging just under 17 points per game in Horizon League play this year, and has only grown his Freshman of the Year lead since the midway point of the season.
Angel Baker picked an incredible time to show why she was a Preseason First Team All-Horizon League pick, averaging 27.5 points with an incredible 59.5 effective field goal percentage in a weekend sweep of Milwaukee that gave Wright State first place in the league standings.
Nneka Obiazor had another outstanding weekend and is likely on her way to another Horizon League Freshman of the week on the women’s side. Obiazor averaged 14.5 points and 8 rebounds per game in just 20 minutes per game. Obiazor is tied for the team lead in scoring with 2019 First Team All-League pick and fifth year senior Mary Dunn. Obiazor is also the team’s top rebounder, maintaining a 2.5 rebound per game lead on Dunn with 8.7 per game.
Cleveland State vs. Oakland
Cleveland State remained undefeated in Horizon League play, but not without some nerve-wracking moments and some controversy. On Friday, the Vikings looked to be on the way to a comfortable win with a 46-33 halftime lead. But in what’s becoming a trend so frequent it’s expected, the team gave up a big second half run and allowed Oakland to pull within five points at 77-72. Fortunately for CSU, this week the opponent’s run was too late in the game and the Vikings held on 80-72. On Saturday the Vikings led for virtually all 40 minutes, but needed a bizarre ending to avoid going to overtime. CSU led 80-78 when Oakland’s Kevin Kangu appeared to tie the game in the waning seconds, but it turned out the clock started early and the play had to be redone. OU turned it over and the Vikings held for the 80-78 win.
Torrey Patton continued his run of quiet but excellent performances, tallying 16.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game for the Vikings. Patton’s offense remains a key indicator in CSU’s success. Dating back to the start of the season, Cleveland State is 1-4 in games where he fails to score double-figures and 13-1 in games where he gets at least 10 points.
Daniel Oladapo averaged 15.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game for the Golden Grizzlies, remaining another one of the most quietly consistent players in the league. The 6-foot-7 forward is five rebounds short of averaging a double-double in Horizon League play, currently sitting at 13.6 points and 9.7 rebounds per game.
Wright State vs. UIC
After UIC served as a serious thorn in Wright State’s side for the last two years, it seems that a new-look Flames roster doesn’t pose nearly the same problems for the Raiders. Wright State cruised to a weekend sweep on the back of the defending Horizon League Player of the Year. On Friday, UIC never pulled within single digits during the second half of a 72-47 Wright State win. UIC fared slightly better on Saturday, but very slightly. The Flames went into half down 36-29 and kept the deficit to less than 10 points until the 18:25 mark of the second half when Wright State rolled for a 77-57 win.
While Loudon Love shot 50 percent or better in both games, his success from the free throw line might’ve been his most notable shooting percentage of the series. Love boosted his free throw shooting by almost three percent on a weekend where he shot more than twice as many per game as he’s averaged this season. If Love is going to take over and claim Horizon League Player of the Year on merits instead of seniority, it’s going to take assertiveness like he showed this weekend down the stretch.
A big part of the reason Wright State came away with a pair of blowout wins despite just one player having multiple strong offensive performances was the Raiders’ ability to shut down UIC star Teyvion Kirk. Kirk averaged 9.5 points per game on 30 percent shooting from the field. He was able to keep his turnover numbers down, but still finished the weekend with six turnovers compared to four assists.
Northern Kentucky vs. Milwaukee
Northern Kentucky earned a sweep over Milwaukee, with both games being fairly straightforward. On Friday, the first half was a back-and-forth one that went to halftime tied at 43. The Norse started the second half on a 9-0 run and held the lead throughout, eventually winning 87-73. Saturday the run started a little earlier, with NKU building a five-point lead at halftime and more gradually extending it after the half in a 79-65 win. One of the more exciting developments in a series of easy NKU wins was a skirmish between the teams that resulted in technical fouls for Te’Jon Lucas and Paul Djoko as well as ejections for C.J. Wilbourn and Courtney Brown Jr.
Adrian Nelson averaged 13.5 points and 11.5 rebounds over the weekend, but that was hardly the most impressive part of his two performances. Nelson shot over 92 percent from the field. Not effective field goal percentage, he didn’t take any 3-pointers. He made 12 of the 13 shots he took from inside the arc for the weekend.
Josh Thomas came off the bench for a pair of great performances for Milwaukee over the weekend. Thomas averaged 16 points while shooting 78.9 percent from the field. It’s unquestionably been a frustrating season for Thomas, who has seen his numbers drop almost across the board despite playing roughly the same minutes. It’ll be interesting to see if a move to the bench allows him to improve his productivity à la Josh Jefferson at Green Bay.
Detroit Mercy vs. Purdue Fort Wayne
Detroit Mercy had one of the easier weekends of anyone in the league while playing against a Purdue Fort Wayne team that still can’t break out of its late-season slide. On Friday, UDM went into the half up 6 and never let the Mastodons pull closer than two possessions in an 82-72 win. Saturday, the halftime lead was the same but the game was even easier. With over six minutes to play, the Titans led 81-47 and even the fact that Detroit Mercy scored two more points the rest of the game couldn’t stop them from an easy 83-56 win.
If the league gives Horizon League Player of the Week to anyone but Loudon Love, it’ll probably be Antoine Davis who walks away with another weekly award. Davis averaged 28 points per game with an effective field goal percentage of 64.7. Another insane shooting weekend carried the Titans to the easy 2-0 weekend and left Davis in a position to finish with the best shooting percentages during Horizon League play that we’ve seen from him in his three seasons.
While go-to-guy Jarred Godfrey had another rough weekend shooting the ball, Jalon Pipkins was once again a solid all-around performer for the Mastodons. Pipkins averaged 14.5 points and 4.5 rebounds with an effective field goal percentage of 64.3. Pipkins has scored 10 or more points efficiently in six of the team’s last seven games.
Green Bay vs. IUPUI
The lone split series of the weekend featured a pair of games that played out drastically differently. On Friday, IUPUI and Green Bay played a back-and-forth contest that wasn’t decided until the Jaguars forced multiple empty possessions in the last three minutes of an 80-71 win. The Phoenix weren’t going to let that happen on Saturday, exploding out of the gate and easily controlling the first half 41-18. IUPUI had a similar run late, but the lead was far too much to overcome and Green Bay won 79-71.
Emmanuel Ansong had the best weekend of his career since transferring up from Wheeling University, averaging 16.5 points and 8 rebounds per game for the Phoenix. The 6-foot-4 sophomore forward has been a very welcome addition to a Green Bay roster where only three guards had any NCAA playing experience heading into the season.
Marcus Burk averaged 22 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists per game for the Jaguars in the split. The 6-foot-3 scoring guard looks like he’s once again headed to an All-League season by putting up hugely impressive stats for a struggling IUPUI team. Helping his case this season, the Jaguars have already played Cleveland State and Wright State and aren’t currently in last place using traditional standings.
Youngstown State vs. Robert Morris
Arguably the most compelling series of the weekend featured two of the teams who entered closest to the bottom of the standings. Youngstown State outlasted Robert Morris in a pair of games that went to overtime. On Friday, the Penguins erased a 5-point halftime deficit to take a seven-point lead with 12:43 to play, but the Colonials battled back, with the final touch being a Jon Williams buzzer beater just moments after he appeared to be fouled in the act of shooting the game-tying shot. A Michale Akuchie 3-pointer that put YSU up 77-74 with 1:54 to play in overtime followed by a scoreless minute for both sides forced RMU to try to extend the game, but YSU prevailed 84-78. On Saturday, YSU held a multiple possession lead with less than a minute to play before allowing a pair of RMU buckets to force the extra period. A nearly two minute scoreless streak sunk the Colonials and Youngstown State prevailed 70-66.
Darius Quisenberry returned to action for the first time in over a month, and put forward his first two 20-point performances against Division I competition. While Quisenberry finished the weekend with an effective field goal percentage of just 39.4, the fact that he was able to take the leading role in his return bodes well for YSU down the stretch.
Robert Morris star A.J. Bramah also returned to action, though after just a one-week absence. Bramah returned to the form we’ve seen from him all season, averaging 18.5 points and 13.5 rebounds per game for the Colonials. Bramah remained incredibly effective despite struggling with foul trouble in both games. He committed four fouls on Friday and fouled out on Saturday.
With the season winding down, Bob and Matt take a look at how the Horizon League is shaping up, with the top two teams (Cleveland State and Wright State), well-positioned for the highest seeds, while teams like Norther Kentucky and Detroit Mercy are getting hot at the right time to stake their claim on the first-round conference tournament byes. Plus, they also talk about the bizarre ending to CSU-Oakland on Saturday, Robert Morris’ overtime whoas, and the return of Darius Quisenberry and how that changes the team dynamic at Youngstown State.
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