With the start of the Horizon League Men’s Basketball Tournament just hours away, I wanted to do a bit of a throwback. We’re not going to be making picks — yet — but I did get writers (and a podcast co-host) from some of the schools who will be in action today to get their thoughts on what it’ll take for their school to come away with a win.
Matt Dudek (Oakland), James Moon (Wright State), and Eric Fischer (Green Bay) all see their schools winning tonight. Out of jealousy for their optimism in the face of what have been some adversarial seasons, I turned around and made them write about why they think their school will be moving on. Blake Schumaker (Wright State) was kind enough to give his take on an what and IU Indianapolis win would look like, and I chimed in with my thoughts on the Northern Kentucky-Detroit Mercy matchup.
Here’s a look at what could tip the scales in either direction for each of the games in the first round of the Horizon League Men’s Basketball tournament:
6-seed Oakland vs. 11-seed Green Bay
How can Oakland win?
“It’s hard to beat a team 3 times in a year.” Sure, but losing 27 games in a season isn’t an accident or fluke either. While you can’t ignore how well GB has played down the stretch, you also can’t ignore that Oakland is the better team.
Oakland may be flawed and their season is on borrowed time, but they’re going to have to head to MKE after this game. Their biggest advantage that’s going to get them a third win of GB? Coaching. I’m not as down on Gottlieb as many but he’s still a more inexperienced coach. Kampe made an adjustment late in the recent game switching to man defense and a different offensive outlook and it worked. Gottlieb isn’t prepared to counter a coach with Kampe’s experience.
Add back in Jaylen Jones and this Oakland team should handle their business Tuesday. They aren’t going to look past Green Bay and that will only hurt Green Bay more.
– Matt Dudek
How can Green Bay win?
For the second year in a row, the Phoenix will be playing their first game in the Horizon League Tournament against the team they squared off against in the regular season finale. Green Bay will be seeking revenge for Saturday’s loss, having led the game by as much as 14 at one point in the 2nd half, before running out of gas and losing in overtime.
Green Bay will be a bit healthier for this game, as Yonatan Levy and Preston Ruedinger are expected to be available after having missed Saturday’s game with injury. Two extra bodies will go a long way for a team playing its best basketball this side of the Anthony Roy injury.
The Phoenix boast one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country, incredibly important when facing a very physical opponent in Oakland. If the Phoenix can get to the line and make the most of their opportunities, with the returning defensive presences of Ruedinger and Levy, Green Bay may be able to shock the league and upset the March Madness darling from a season ago.
– Eric Fischer
Editor’s note: Green Bay can win if they ignore Jon Rothstein this time.
7-seed Northern Kentucky vs. 10-seed Detroit Mercy
How can Northern Kentucky win?
Despite winding up a 7-seed in the Horizon League Tournament, Northern Kentucky is one of the hottest teams in the league. NKU is 7-2 in its last 9 games with victories over Top 6 seeds Oakland, Cleveland State, Purdue Fort Wayne and Youngstown State in that stretch. With three more wins in its last 9 Horizon League games than Detroit Mercy has in the entire 20-game Horizon League season, the biggest thing that the Norse can do is to keep the momentum going. A big piece of that momentum is transfer Dan Gherezgher, whose top five scoring performances all come during this 9-game run.
A big part of NKU’s run is much better offensive execution. In the last nine games, the Norse averaged 78.4 points per game, nearly 20 points per game better than the 59.7 per game average during the six-game losing streak that preceded the current run. A high-level offensive matchup likely favors NKU.
– John Parker
How can Detroit Mercy win?
It’s strangely easy to see how Detroit Mercy could beat Northern Kentucky tonight, despite the run that Northern Kentucky currently finds itself in the middle of. An obvious way that Detroit Mercy could beat Northern Kentucky is to do what they already did back in January, where UDM held the Norse to 19-for-63 shooting from the field and 4-for-27 from beyond the arc. Holding Northern Kentucky to another awful shooting night would make winning a much easier proposition for the 10th place Titans, and one that the team has already proven it can pull off.
Another option for UDM to beat Northern Kentucky would be for Detroit Mercy standout Orlando Lovejoy to put up a big performance. In the Titans’ win, Lovejoy scored 19 points, but did it on 6-for-17 shooting. With a bigger scoring night on better efficiency, it’s easy to see UDM coming away with a win without needing the surging Norse to lay enough bricks to renovate the arena. Given the Norse’s surge since UDM beat them, an Antoine Davis-type performance out of Lovejoy might be the more likely way that the Titans advance.
– John Parker
8-seed Wright State vs. 9-seed IU Indianapolis
How can Wright State win?
First, Wright State needs to put bodies on Paul Zilinskas. He is the best three-point shooter (41.3%) and second-best foul shooter (89.2%) in the Horizon League. After being one of the biggest snubs left off of the All-Horizon League teams on Monday, Zilinskas might want to put up a repeat of the 31 points he scored against Wright State on Saturday.
Next, WSU needs to crash the boards. Despite having Brandon Noel, the Horizon League’s active leader in career rebounds, Wright State was out-rebounded 38-29 in Saturday’s 7-point loss. That included giving up 17 offensive rebounds to the Jaguars. A better job rebounding this weekend could’ve led to Wright State coming home with a win.
Finally, the Raiders need to hit shots. Shooting wasn’t a problem for the Raiders on Saturday, shooting 53.1 percent from the field, but it’s such an important part of how WSU stays competitive in games that the team needs to do it to avoid ending its season on a 2-game losing streak against IU Indianapolis.
– James Moon
How can IU Indianapolis win?
IU Indy (NOT IUPUI anymore, you had all year to get it right media people) had to deal with chaos before and during this season. AD Luke Bosso had his work cut out for him in this total brand rebuild – different name, different coach, overhauled team, yet projected in the preseason to be the same bottom feeder “anchoring” down the conference. Snagging Paul Corsaro from the top of Division II’s lineup of coaches made sense for the team as a local hire, being from similarly named UIndy after all, and he brings with him a lot of the best talent from the Division II scene to elevate IU Indy. The regular season would test the question: Did Corsaro bring in the necessary pieces and experience needed to make a splash with about as clean of a slate as you could ask for?
In my opinion, yes he absolutely did. Corsaro posted IU Indy’s first ten win season since 2018. They’ve had good showings in conference, especially in the month of February where they dueled with the upper echelon of the conference to the wire, and have swept against Detroit Mercy and Green Bay, the opponents they should be beating this season. Their efforts have awarded them the 9 seed and a road match against Wright State for the tournament.
IU Indy has already had the pleasure of beating Wright State as recently as last weekend. As part of their Senior Day festivities (and their first game following their bus catching fire and destroying everything on it – no seriously you should look at these images), IU Indy stayed close and took advantage of a four minute lull in the Raiders scoring to turn the game around in the second half and end the regular season on a high note.
HoriZone Second Team honoree Paul Zilinskas has been the key to the Jaguars revival this season, putting up multiple 20+ PT games on 41% 3PT shooting. He’s a threat anywhere you find him on the floor and the star of the Corsaro offense. Backing him up is Jarvis Walker and Sean Craig, both of whom transferred over with Zilinskas and Corsaro from UIndy and are currently averaging in double digits in scoring. Craig is also 4th in the league in rebounds this year, cleaning up an average of 7.7 a game. Outside of the UIndy transfers, most of whom will be graduating this year, Corsaro also picked up a starter in F Desean Goode, who made the Horizon League All-Freshman Team with 7.8 PPG and four double-doubles so far.
To get through Wright State and win the series this season, the Jaguars are going to have to do it in the Nutter Center – a tall ask for any team. Wright State is 10-4 at home this season and the Nutter has a reputation of being one of the hardest stadiums to play in due to the crowd size being consistently higher than any other HL team. However, Wright State has been inconsistent this year and not able to fire on all cylinders seemingly at any point this season. The path through Wright State should involve shutting Brandon Noel down at all costs – the Jaguars have not been able to put the big man away in the two games they’ve played, but were able to successfully outrebound to earn some extra opportunities in the win. If IU Indy can manage to contain him on both sides of the ball, Wright State could go down incredibly early for the first time since the Donlon era.
– Blake Schumaker
