The Dissection of a Collapse – How Wright State’s 21-point lead translated into a loss to Bellarmine

0
169
Photo courtesy of Wright State Athletics

On Thursday, following a major performance at home against the Tennessee State Tigers that gave the Raiders their first Division I win, the squad traveled to Louisville, KY to take on Bellarmine, a relatively recent Division I callup representing the ASUN conference. The school is now able to participate in NCAA tournaments following their 4 year probation and Bellarmine’s women’s basketball squad has had some decent wins to start that first true season free of NCAA stipulation. Currently 3-2 with the only losses being a close match to Detroit Mercy and a respectable fight against Purdue, Bellarmine was looking to defend their home and overall record.

However, in the opening minutes, the Raiders made it clear they weren’t going to make that easy for them. Wright State would charge through the Bellarmine defense early, taking an early double digit lead to end the first quarter, and would keep separating themselves from there. With the exception of a shaky final minute to end the half 43-30, the Raiders were confident and poised on the floor.

The Wright State women’s basketball team, for all intents and purposes, was as perfect as it needed to be for 25 minutes of the game. They were methodical, taking their time on offense to find good, well placed shots and collapsing into the paint to grab defensive rebounds while Bellarmine struggled to find the net. Wide open three point shots were sunk, led by Rylee Sagester who was 3-4 from the arc and acting as the Raiders’ reliable outside option. Makiya Miller and Macie Taylor tested and broke the Knight’s defense, with Amaya Staton and Chloe Chard Peloquin in the paint to clean up any misses with efficiency.

“We were the team that was dictating on both ends,” Hoffman said cheerfully. “Because we were scoring, we were able to make them set up their offense and we were guarding it well. I thought our game plan was excellent, we were executing it and we were making shots … and playing well together.”

At the media timeout of the third quarter, the Raiders had kept Bellarmine to a measly 5 points and scored 13 of their own to stretch their lead to its highest of the game: 56-35. Up to this point, the Raiders had been shooting above 50% and were making their three point shots. The Raiders owned a +16 rebounding margin on their opponent, one of their best in recent memory. Even the turnover count at this point in the game, 11, while not wonderful was still a sign of progression. By all accounts, they had effectively dominated the game in all aspects.

This game with this win probability shown above would end in an unspeakable manner, with the Raiders allowing the Bellarmine Knights to storm back from this deficit and end this game 71-79. In the final 13 minutes of play, not including garbage time, the Raiders would score 9 points.

How did this happen? Let’s look at some film to decipher, dissect, and diagnose what went wrong.

Starting with the beginning of the end, Macie Taylor misses a pair of free throws to start the trend. After a back and forth possession, Bellarmine tries a corner three which gets cleaned up by freshman Hana Abdel Aal going overtop of Claire Henson. Up to this point, the Raiders had kept the paint under control. Abdel Aal is going to change that in the next few minutes.

It’s after this possession that Bellarmine switches to full-court pressure. Tennessee State, Wright State’s lone Division I win of the season, used this to decent effect against the Raider offense as well. The Raiders are young and errant passes and dribbling have been fairly commonplace given the turnover numbers in their games. On the first full court press, the Knights force a ten second violation following a low pass from Miller to Magestro-Kennedy.

“In every game, there’s been a different scheme, a different pressure that’s been thrown at us,” Hoffman mused. “Their pressure really bothered us.”

Abdel Aal would follow up this turnover with points in the paint, a routine lob over Chard Peloquin. Sagester shoots a three off the rim on the other side which lands in the hands of Chard Peloquin for the second chance, but is stripped by Hope Pivori, Bellarmine’s ace, and brought the other way for a three by Erin Toller, who would come alive in the final minutes. Wright State timeout.

On the inbound, we’re right back to full court pressure. This time, Olivia Brown would get stuffed at half-court and the ball taken away for easy transition points. In one and a half minutes of play, the Raiders have turned over the ball three times and the Knights have scored 8 unanswered. Not everything is off the hinges though, Brown was able to take the line following a late foul on that play. The score is now 58-44, still a healthy lead.

But wait, more chaos! Miller ends up behind a streaking Miyah Brown (Bellarmine G) on the rebound to give up some second chance points. Henson then passes directly to Sivori on the other end, who’s been having a great time interrupting passes, and Toller makes another three from the key. Another 5 points for the Knights to bring them within single digits after being down 21 no less than three minutes ago.

Staton would make another couple of free throws after a foul against Sivori. A Henson steal would bring the Raiders back again, but Miller’s three in transition would bounce off the rim. In contrast to the process and game plan that was executed the whole night, the offense rushed this possession through, giving the Knights a full thirty seconds to finish off the quarter. Three chances later, Bellarmine ends the third quarter down 60-51.

Starting off the fourth quarter right, the Raiders’ offense methodically dissected the defense and got to Chard Peloquin for the easy layup. Take a break from the negative here and watch the Raiders pass and push to get this point. For the majority of this game, this was the Raiders’ offense and it was fantastic to watch.

From here, the Raiders’ offense had:

1. A rushed three point attempt
2. An offensive charge foul
3. A steal, then travel call by Miller
4. A blocked half-court pass by Henson
5. Some free throws by Taylor, which she was 1-2
6. Olivia Brown’s pocket picked, leading to fast break points
7. An offensive charge foul and turnover on Staton off the ball
8. A tipped layup

Bellarmine is now within 1 as they found some open opportunities and sunk them. 63-62.

A pass by Miller goes awry. The ninth turnover in ten minutes. Toller buries the three, solidifying the lead change and putting Bellarmine up by 2. On the other end, another errant pass off some solid Bellarmine pressure creates turnover #10.

The Raiders did end up managing some stops by flooding the rim and preventing offensive rebounds. A pair of fouls would bring them to the charity stripe to shoot some more free throws, which they went 2-4. The game is now tied 65-65.

Abdel Aal would come back into the game from the bench and immediately seal this game away. Henson would overcommit to the coverage of the forward and leave Hayley Harrison wide open on the bend.

On turnover #11, a wide open post allows Miyah Brown an easy layup.

On the way back, Taylor loses her footing on the floor and Coach Kari Hoffman calls another timeout in an effort to bring some order back and save the possession. Coming out of the timeout, the Raiders attempt two more clean shots, as well as a fast-break attempt, that all fail to fall. With 50 seconds on the clock, Toller drives the dagger home overtop of Sagester’s defense. 65-73. After some back and forth in garbage time, the Raiders would leave Kentucky the losers of a game thought to be theirs, losing 71-79, and asking themselves a lot of questions on the road trip home.

So what happened? The turnovers of the Wright State squad effectively squashed any momentum they had built, giving Bellarmine the ability to earn 32 points off of turnovers alone in this game. The Raiders were not able to capitalize on any chances they had because there were almost no chances to begin with. Even three less turnovers by the squad, such as the ones given up in transition to the full court press, could’ve led to a different result. Some lapses in coverage on Bellarmine could also be at fault here, but even then the Raiders more accurately outshot their foe. Bellarmine got an additional 17 chances at the bucket due to the lack of control and failure to maintain the rebounding presence from before, and the Raiders got bit as a result.

“That was everything, that was the game,” Hoffman remarked when asked about the turnovers in the final minutes. “I told the team at halftime ‘Listen, the pressure is coming. We’re going to have to handle the pressure, we’re going to have to handle some of their runs and turnovers are a huge piece of that.’ We have to end the game with under 15 turnovers and we blew that out of the water.”

Wright State would end the game with 23 total turnovers, a slightly hurt FG%, and their rebounding margin lead effectively destroyed by the Bellarmine offense, who brought in 9 offensive rebounds in that stretch of time. Amaya Staton led the offense in points and rebounds with 15 and 11 respectively, followed by Makiya Miller and Macie Taylor with 12 and 10. Claire Henson also pulled in 10 rebounds for the Raiders.

“I’m frustrated, but I’m not upset,” Hoffman replied when asked about her impressions. “We’re so close to turning the corner of playing well for four quarters, and we did that – we played pretty well for three quarters and then did everything we could possibly do to lose the game.”

Wright State returns home to face MAC’s Ohio on Sunday, November 24, at 2 pm. Ohio took a much larger loss to Bellarmine earlier in the season and is currently sitting at 1-3 overall. The Bobcats were picked tied for 6th in the MAC’s preseason poll.

Leave a Reply